NFL Betting Systems: The Definitive Guide to Top Strategies

Week 4 NFL betting guide: Picks against the spread for every game, best totals, and more

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Week 3 NFL betting guide: Picks against the spread for every game, best totals, and more

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Week 2 NFL betting guide: Picks against the spread for every game, best totals, and more

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NFL Week 10 betting guide and our best bets for the Westgate SuperContest

  1. Now check out our best bets of the college football slate this weekend.
  2. Monday Night Chaser: Giants @ 49ers Over 44
  3. Weekly Tease: Patriots (-0.5), Eagles (-1), Jaguars (+9)
  4. Money Dogs: New York Giants (+155), Buffalo Bills (+260)
  5. Eliminator Lock: Kansas City Chiefs
  6. Philadelphia Eagles* (-6.5) over Dallas Cowboys
  7. Oakland Raiders* (+2.5) over Los Angeles Chargers
  8. Detroit Lions (+6.5) over Chicago Bears*
  9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers* (-3) over Washington Redskins
  10. Pittsburgh Steelers* (-4) over Carolina Panthers
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Defending the Draft: New England Patriots

Going into the 2019 season, the Patriots held very high expectations. The defense that had just shut down the high-powered 2018 Rams offense had arguably gotten better. Although the offense had lost Rob Gronkowski, the addition of first-round WR N’Keal Harry and free agent Demaryius Thomas seemed to at least keep their offensive options. Combining this with Sony Michel coming off a successful rookie campaign and 4 of 5 starters of a strong offensive line, with Trent Brown being replaced by 2018 1st round selection Isaiah Wynn, the offensive situation looked optimistic for New England.
As the team progressed through the 2019 preseason and into the season itself, things began to look even better. Although N’Keal Harry injured himself in the first preseason game, the team was eventually informed that Josh Gordon would be reinstated, even being allowed to start Week 1. The defense showed its prowess throughout the preseason, especially against the Lions and Panthers, with the only bad game coming against the Giants, when the Patriots mainly played people at the bottom of the depth chart. To add to New England fans’ excitement, they saw their team sign WR Antonio Brown the night before the team’s debut against the Steelers. As New England embarrassed Brown’s former team 33-3, and then the Dolphins 43-0 it seemed almost inevitable that New England would become the first franchise to win 7 Super Bowls.
However, that was not how the season progressed. Brown couldn’t handle himself even under Belichick’s control, and his decision to threaten the children of one of his accusers of sexual assault found him released from the team. Josh Gordon was injured Week 6 against the Giants, eventually being medically released and later found to have relapsed when he was on the Seahawks. The rest of the offense was riddled with injuries: Julian Edelman had nagging rib injuries, Philip Dorsett hurt his foot early in the year and also sustained a concussion, Mohammed Sanu sustained an ankle injury in his first game, early kick/punt returner Gunner Olsewski was injured in Week 7, Brady himself reportedly struggled with his elbow. The worst effects of injury came against the Offensive Line, as 4 out of the 5 starters sustained some injury, and this is not including the fact that C David Andrews missed the whole season because of pulmonary embolism. The most impactful injury out of this bunch was LT Isaiah Wynn, as the team had to deploy Marshall Newhouse to replace him, a role that Newhouse did not fill adequately, to say the least. Blocking also suffered when FB James Devlin suffered a season ending injury, followed by his backup Jakob Johnson also being put on IR only a few games later. Matt LaCosse and Ben Watson both missed multiple games, forcing the team to only roll with Ryan Izzo at tight end at some times.
These many injuries, as well as a terrible TE corps, not only stunted the passing attack but also crippled the running game. Michel was often met and tackled in the backfield, resulting in a terrible YPC despite being the AFC East’s leading rusher. Despite these offense struggles, the team’s excellent defense performance, in combination with facing many subpar offenses, carried the team to a 12-4 record and the 3rd seed in the AFC. However, the offensive struggles were too great for the team; although the team’s defense held the red-hot Titans offense to 14 points and gave the offense multiple chances to pull ahead, the offense failed to perform when needed, unable to finish drives, even when on Tennessee’s 1-yard line. Sometimes you really do need an offense to win a championship.
Notable Losses
QB Tom Brady, FA, Buccaneers: The one loss that seemed unthinkable until it really happened. Even though we knew that Brady’s contract voided after this year, many fans thought he was still going to re-sign and finish his career here. However, New England really did not have the cap space to do so and build a satisfactory team around him, causing Brady to decide to sign with the Buccaneers, a team with high offensive potential and has a shot at the super bowl. The Greatest QB of All Time will be missed here in New England, as the team experiences uncertainty at the position for the first time in nearly 20 years.
FB James Devlin, Retirement: When it was announced that it was a neck injury that sidelined Devlin for the rest of the season, his future with the team was in doubt. Once the team signed free agent Dan Vitale, it was almost certain that Devlin would announce his retirement sooner or later. James Devlin was an underrated part of the Pats’ success in the 2010s, where he proved to be a reliable lead blocker, bolstering the effectiveness of New England’s run game. His absence for most of 2019 was palpable as the team consistently struggled establishing a run game, and the Patriots have a tall task of finding an effective replacement for him.
K Stephen Gostkowski, Released: Gostkowski’s departure represented another long-time Patriot staple leaving the team, although the Patriots had started to live without him as his season ended very early due to an injury that required surgery. The Patriots missed Gostkowski’s leg last year, as the team could not reliably score field goals longer than 40 yards, causing the offense to attempt 4th down conversions deep into enemy territory.
LB Kyle Van Noy, FA, Dolphins: One of Belichick’s greatest successes in terms of correctly utilizing players that were previously viewed as ‘busts’ because their coaches could not use them correctly. Van Noy was acquired from the Lions for a measly swap of 6th and 7th picks midway through the 2016 season. Throughout his tenure with the Patriots, especially within the last two seasons, Van Noy became a staple piece in the team’s LB corps with his versatility and great fundamentals. Van Noy now joins his former LB coach Brian Flores in Miami, who will likely maximize Van Noy’s potential.
LB Elendon Roberts, FA, Miami: Elandon Roberts joined his teammate Van Noy in joining Miami to be coached under Brian Flores. Roberts was promoted to captain for his final season in New England, and primarily played most of his defensive snaps as a run-defending thumping linebacker. Roberts also filled in as an emergency FB when both Devlin and Johnson were injured, and played decently well for a third-string FB, I guess. Roberts represents another role that the Patriots had to fill through free agency and the draft.
LB Jamie Collins, FA, Lions: The Patriots added a familiar face in the athletic freak Jamie Collins heading into the 2019 season. Collins’ athleticism allowed him to flash in the early parts of the 2019 season, when he obtained a pick-six at Miami and almost blocked a Bills field goal attempt by broad jumping over the Bills’ line. Like Van Noy, Collins heads to a former Patriots defensive coach in Matt Patricia in Detroit. Unlike the Dolphins, the Lions front office did not watch the second half of the 2019 season, where Collins tended to lose discipline and become a liability in the defense, showing off some of his former issues. I highly doubt Lions fans will think Collins is worth his $10 million APY contract
DT Danny Shelton, FA, Lions: Patriots North scoops up another Patriots player, what a surprise. Going into the 2019 preseason, Shelton seemed like he might be on the outside looking in for the Patriots roster. It looked like other tackles such as Mike Pennel had the ability to replace Shelton. However, Shelton impressed and was able to earn his spot on the team. The nose tackle’s primary role throughout the season was to be a run defender, a role he played quite well. Shelton will help add some strength to a Lions defensive front that played badly last year.
DB Duron Harmon, Traded, Lions: Duron Harmon was a long-time player at the safety position, filling in the role of the third safety while working alongside McCourty and Chung. He earned the nickname of “the closer” due to his performances at the end of matches where he would end the game through obtaining an interception. The Patriots quickly found their replacement for Harmon, most notably adding DB/ST Adrian Phillips, so there really isn’t much worry for him leaving the team.
OL Coach Dante Scarnecchia, Retirement: Arguably the greatest loss that the Patriots suffered outside of Tom Brady, the OL guru has again decided to retire. Scarnecchia is responsible for the Patriots having great offensive lines throughout his tenure and is a sometimes underrated aspect of their wild success. Unlike Scar’s previous retirement in 2014 where he was replaced by Dave DeGuglielmo, both Cole Popovich and Carmen Briscillo have experience being an understudy of Scarnecchia, which will likely help to soften the blow of his retirement. There were also rumors that Scar was still advising New England on scouting the OL position for the draft, so perhaps you can never keep this man away from this team.
Additions, Extensions, Retentions,
C David Andrews, Returning from IR: Although this technically does not fit this category, Andrews deserves to be mentioned. Even though Ted Karras played decently as he was thrust into the starting role, the Patriots felt Andrews absence, especially in the run game. Losing Andrews also likely contributed to the rest of the IOL (especially Mason, who played a lot of the season with a foot injury) not performing as well as they could have. Andrews' return will improve Jarrett Stidham’s performance, both through his protection as well as increasing the effectiveness of the Patriots’ rushing attack.
OG Joe Thuney, Franchise Tag: Bringing back Thuney was a wise move for the Patriots. The star left guard will be instrumental to protecting young quarterback Jarrett Stidham as well as ensuring the run game operates smoothly. Although some consider IOL to be a low-value position, Thuney will help the team acclimate to the other changes that happened around the offense. Having a solid line is an important element of building a good offense, and Thuney will ensure that the left guard position will work reliably.
DBs Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung: With Brady leaving, the Patriots found it valuable to keep long-time veterans around the team to maintain their team morale and culture while acclimating to the personnel change. McCourty has been a captain and locker room leader of the Patriots for quite some time and will be an important leader as the team adjusts to 2020. Both McCourty and Chung will feature in what should be a very strong secondary unit throughout the 2020 season.
DB/ST Adrian Phillips, FA: Boy do the Patriots love versatility special teamers! Phillips has played well as a special teamer and also played in many positions in the Chargers secondary, and will bring his veteran experience to the Patriots secondary. He will likely play in the rotation of safeties with Chung and McCourty, filling in a similar role to Harmon, who was traded the day before Phillips was signed.
DT Beau Allen, FA: The former Buccaneers DT will likely fill in as a replacement for Danny Shelton, who left the team to play for Detroit. Allen projects to play as a run-stuffing nose tackle that will ensure the Patriots can control the run.
FB Danny Vitale, FA: Vitale is an interesting signing. While he is listed as a fullback, he probably will not be a straight replacement for the retired James Devlin. Devlin primarily filled in as a lead blocker and sometimes as a rusher, but very rarely was used as a downfield threat. Vitale has some decent athleticism and pass-catching experience that the Patriots will likely utilize. His versatility may mean the Patriots move him around a lot instead of just using him as a lead blocker, though he has decent experience at that position as well.
LB Brandon Copeland, FA: Copeland was a signing the Patriots made to help account for the losses they had in free agency. The veteran LB recently played for the division rival Jets, where he primarily performed off the ball under Gregg Williams. Copeland brings some versatility and leadership as he has had to adapt from playing from the defensive line to off the ball.
WRs Marqise Lee and Dameire Byrd, FA: Byrd’s main attribute is straight-line speed, though he really has never been able to convert it into a high amount of production, in part due to injuries. Perhaps it’s because Dorsett was on this team for three straight years, but I am not going to bet on Byrd producing just because he has speed. Lee is much more interesting, as he was able to produce solidly during 2016-17. However, Lee has not performed nearly at all in the last two years because of injuries. If Lee can return to his pre-injury form, (though not very likely), he could carve out a pretty decent role on this New England roster.
The Draft:
2.37 Kyle Dugger, DB, Lenoir-Rhyne:
It wasn’t a surprise to many Patriots fans that the team elected to trade out of their first round pick, though some that held up hope the Patriots would make a selection might have been disappointed. Many fans wondered where the team would go with their first pick, and when it was announced that the team chose a DB from a division II school, people were initially exasperated.
Belichick’s record with 2nd round defensive backs is quite well known such that it has become a meme within the fanbase and around the NFL. His main success with the position in the second round was with Patrick Chung, and even he wasn’t very successful until his second stint. Obviously, we can’t declare a player a success or failure just because of prior trends or draft position and instead should look at the player himself if we are to make a judgement upon him.
Coming out of high school, Dugger only received offers from DII schools because he was very undersized. As he eventually grew into his frame in Lenoir-Rhyne, he elected to commit to the school that recruited him. Dugger is a hard-hitting player who most likely will transition to playing in the box as a safety for the Patriots, likely eventually taking over for aging veteran Patrick Chung.
What separates Dugger from many other defensive backs the Patriots have selected over the recent years is his athleticism. Dugger running a 4.49s 40, jumping 42 inches in the vertical jump and 134 in the broad jump while being 6’1” and 217 pounds presents a mixture of speed, size, and athleticism that is rare for a safety. The main aspect of his game that the Patriots need to work on is his transition to playing against NFL-level competition. Generally, the jump from a DI school to the NFL is quite large, the difference from DII to the NFL is even larger. It will likely take a year or two for Dugger to be ready to be a significant contributor on the defense as he adjusts to his new system. Adapting to these circumstances, the Patriots have ensured that Dugger will not have a lot of pressure to perform on defense early on through extending Chung and signing Phillips. Interestingly, Dugger’s coaching throughout his years at Lenoir-Rhyne has been inconsistent, he had to play under three different coordinators during his four years at the school. Hopefully with some great coaching and system stability with Bill and Steve Belichick Dugger can carve out his role as a future player in the secondary.
Perhaps to the disappointment of some Patriots fans, Dugger’s contributions early in his career will most likely be on special teams. Dugger had experience being a returner in college, and I would not be surprised if that becomes his primary role early on in his tenure. Dugger’s athletic ability gives him the potential to become a future star on the team if he can adapt to the NFL. Only time will tell whether he works out or becomes another player too add to the list of failed second round picks.
2.60 Josh Uche, OLB, Michigan:
Patriots Director of Player Personnel Nick Caserio remarked that prior to day two, the Patriots had three players they had a priority on acquiring: Dugger was one of them, and Uche was the other that the Patriots were able to draft with their selections.
Like Dugger, Uche is an explosive athlete with great speed as well as motor. Due to enduring an injury in the senior bowl, he was unable to participate in the combine. However, his athleticism shows up on film. Uche is a very versatile player, being able to play both on the line as well as off the ball and his efforts got him named the most versatile player by PFF in their 2020 draft guide. Michigan DC Don Brown said that he put Uche in nearly every position on the defense. I am sure Belichick was quite happy when he saw the 245 pound linebacker in coverage downfield against Penn State WR KJ Hamler. Amongst his versatility, his pass rush ability is what truly stands out. His 23.2% pressure rate and 28.2% pass rush win rate were second in both categories in the FBS. Uche achieved these great statistics through his incredible getoff off the line as well as good hand placement combined with his fantastic athleticism. Don Brown stated that Uche’s primary motivation was to become the best pass rusher in the country, and the dedication and work that Uche put in to be amongst the best in the country showed throughout the 2019 season. The primary aspect of Uche’s game that he needs to solidify in order to increase his role on the Patriots is increasing consistency with run defense.
Uche marked the first of five consecutive selections the Patriots made that addressed pressing needs. Considering the amount of LB talent that left over the offseason, it is possible that Uche will see a decent amount of playing time on the defense, perhaps in a similar role to former Wolverine Chase Winovich, whom Uche now rejoins in New England. I see Uche likely being the second-most impactful rookie to play for the Patriots this season, helping to strengthen the team’s pass rush, resulting in a more effective pass defense overall.
3.87 Anfernee Jennings, OLB, Alabama:
Jennings’ selection serves as a nice complement to Uche’s. While Uche is this very athletic and undersized linebacker, Jennings better fits into the traditional, big, physical type of linebacker. Coming from Alabama, Jennings offers great fundamentals and football IQ that come from developing under Alabama Head Coach Nick Saban. While he may not be the most athletic or flashy player, Jennings will likely cement his role in the Patriots defense as a solid and reliable player, especially against the run. Jennings registered great production during his time at Alabama, leading edge defenders in FBS for run-stop rate at 12.6%. The Alabama product has often been compared to former Patriots LB Kyle Van Noy due to his ability to be a versatile piece across the line.
Jennings is a very persevering player as well. In 2018 he suffered a worrying knee injury. Fortunately, the injury did not prevent him from returning to the field, but Jenninngs had to put in a lot of effort in order to return to his previous form. Saban also complimented Jennings’s dedication to improving himself in practice sessions. Jennings likely projects as an edge defender who will play very well against the run while also sometimes dropping into coverage. Jennings will likely see a fair amount of action as a rookie, especially on rushing downs. While he may not have a high ceiling, Jennings will likely be an anchor of the Pats’ defense as he progresses through his contract.
3.91 Devin Asiasi, TE, UCLA:
On the offense, New England desperately needed to do something with their TE situation. Matt Lacosse may be a replacement level backup, but Ryan Izzo is not an NFL-caliber player. With very little cap space to address the position in free agency, the Patriots looked to the draft to fill their TE position. By selecting Asiasi in the third round, it is the first time the Patriots have spent a day two or higher pick on a tight end since 2010, when they selected Gronkowski.
Asiasi will likely become the Patriots number 1 option at the position. When looking at Bill Belichick’s 1991 scouting notes shared by Daniel Jeremiah, NBC analyst Phil Perry noted that Asiasi seems to fit the bill for the number one role. Devin Asiasi displayed great catching ability throughout his year starting at UCLA, only having one drop throughout the entire year. Asiasi also demonstrated great ability to run after the catch, averaging 5.6 yards in this category. Another ability that Asiasi brings as a TE that the Patriots sorely missed in 2019 is blocking. Even if Asiasi won’t perform as a great blocker (which is best reserved for #2 or #3 TEs anyway), it will most likely be better than the awfulness that was Patriot tight end blocking last year.
Asiasi was suspended for three games in the 2018 season for undisclosed reasons by Chip Kelly. However, Bill Belichick and the Patriots are on good terms with UCLA head coach Chip Kelly, meaning that they were able to confer with Kelly and confirm that Asiasi would be a good fit with the team and his suspensions were nothing to.worry about. Asiasi also possesses high football intelligence, being able to run complex concepts such as option routes in Kelly’s TE heavy offense. Even though Asiasi is undersized for what people normally think of a #1 TE , only being 6’3” and 257 lbs., his athletic ability and smooth movement should translate well into the NFL. Although Asiasi will likely be the starting Y-Tight End for the Patriots offense, I would not bet on him to break the trend of rookie TEs having low production, though Asiasi will definitely contribute in blocking.
3.101 Dalton Keene, TE, Virginia Tech:
The Patriots also repeated something that they did 10 years ago, which was taking two tight ends in the draft. Dalton Keene is an interesting prospect to project for the Patriots. His playstyle resembles that of an F or move tight end. Even Belichick admitted after drafting Keene that they would have work to do in terms of finding him a role on this team, since the role that Keene played in the Virginia Tech offense is nothing like anything the Patriots run in their offense.
If Keene seems to be such a confusing fit for the Patriots, then what made the team trade back up into the third round in order to select him. The most defining feature that Keene exhibits through his play is toughness. He is a very dedicated and ruthless player, oftentimes toughing it out through injury and not playing with high regard to his health while on the field. The aggressiveness that Keene displayed both during practice and games caused his teammates to give him the nickname of “Rambo”. Keene’s offensive coordinator Brad Cornelsen called him the toughest player he has ever seen. Keene has never produced that much in the receiving game, only racking up 341 yards in his most productive receiving season. Perhaps given his athletic talent it suggests that Virginia Tech underutilized his ability in the passing game, instead placing more focus upon his ability in the run game instead. Keene will be a versatile player and likely fill multiple roles as the Patriots’ second tight end, primarily being used as that F tight end, move tight end, or perhaps H-back. He may in fact share similar duties to FB Danny Vitale. I would be more than happy if Keene and Asiasi can combine for about 600-700 receiving yards and a few touchdowns in their rookie year.
5.159 Justin Rohrwasser, K, Marshall:
Another need that the Patriots needed to fill during the draft or free agency was the kicker position. Many people expected the Patriots to take someone like Georgia kicker Rodrigo Blankenship, Georgia Southern kicker Tyler Bass, or Chase Vinatieri from South Dakota. When the Patriots selected Rohrwasser, a kicker who was so unknown that he didn’t even have a profile on the NFL’s website many people were confused.
What caused the Patriots to select this unknown kicker from Marshall. Rohrwasser displayed great performance throughout the 2019 season, having a statistically better season compared to the other higher profile kickers in the draft. Rohrwasser made 18 of 21 field goals and 35 of 36 XPs. He was perfect on kicks greater than 50 yards out, even hitting a clutch field goal from 53 yards against Western Kentucky after being iced twice. Belichickj stated that the Patriots have watched over 250 kicks and were impressed by his ability to kick in clutch situations as well as poor conditions, something Rohrwasser will have to do often in the AFC East. It is unclear whether Rohrwasser will relieve punter Jake Bailey of his kickoff duties (thought I think it’s more likely than not). If there is any position I trust Bill to evaluate, it’ s the placekicker. Rohrwasser will likely be the most impactful rookie on the patriots, mainly because he is the only surefire starter out of all of them. If Rohrwasser succeeds, the Patriots will be able to not go for fourth downs deep in enemy territory again and have a good kicker on a cheap rookie deal.
6.182 Michael Onwenu, OG, Michigan:
After addressing many immediate needs, the Patriots decided to take some shots at reserve linemen. Considering what happened in 2019, it is smart for the Patriots to add some young talent to the Offensive Line in order to account for things not going according to plan.
The first thing that strikes people when they look at Onwenu is his size. This man is HUGE, especially for an interior lineman. Coming in at 6’3”, around 350 lbs (he actually weighed closer to 370 during the season at college), Onwenu is a very physically imposing presence. He is very good at doing his job of not letting defenders get by him. During his past two years at Michigan, Onwenu played 1198 snaps, Onwenu only allowed 13 pressures and 2 sacks. He plays with great power and if he is able to get his hands on the defender, then it is over. Onwenu also possesses decent movement ability for his size; he will be able to perhaps do downfield blocking a bit better than people expect him to. Also, according to Michigan’s OL coach Ed Warriner, Onenwu really doesn’t have the ability to go much lower than 345 lbs.
Onenwu will start out on the team as a backup in the iOL, though more likely in his natural position of RG. Onenwu is quite different compared to New England’s other iOLs, he is 50 pounds heavier than the rest of our starting interiors. It will be interesting to see how Onwenu is able to execute the Patriots’ offensive scheme considering how physically different he is compared to Thuney, Andrews, and Mason. Either way, Onenwu will be a reliable depth piece that can protect Stidham if any of the starters go down.
6.195 Justin Herron, OG/OT, Wake Forest:
The second lineman that the Patriots invested draft capital in was Justin Herron. Herron started 51 games for Wake Forest, exclusively at the LT position. Herron’s experience at the position will likely slot him in as the primary backup to Isaiah Wynn, who has spent a lot of time of his career injured. Herron did suffer an ACL tear in the first week of the 2018 season, but rebounded quite well in 2019. Herron, like Onwenu, is a great pass-blocker. In 2017, the season prior to tearing his ACL, Herron allowed zero sacks. In 2019, when he recovered from his ACL injury, he only allowed four sacks and 13 pressures.
Some analysts raise questions about Herron playing tackle at the next level, instead projecting him as a guard. Interestingly, analysts made similar remarks about now-starting LT Isaiah Wynn. Considering that he only played left tackle during his time in college, I think the Patriots evaluated him and will use him as a tackle. If New England wanted an interior lineman, they likely would have selected someone else. Another concern that some have about Herron is his athleticism, which showed up at the combine, especially in his 8.41s three-cone drill. Scarnecchia often said the Patriots don’t care too much about athleticism in the OL, saying that they only needed to be athletic-enough. If the Patriots were that concerned about his athletic ability, he likely wouldn’t have been selected. Even so, it’s a great idea to grab a tackle who played solidly in college and will spend most of his rookie deal as a reserve player. This pick will be a success if Herron makes the team and can competently back up Wynn if he finds himself injured again.
6.204 Cassh Maluia, LB, Wyoming:
In the midst of the Patriots grabbing multiple offensive lineman, the Patriots selected another linebacker to increase their depth. During the 2019 season, Maluia went relatively under the radar due to his fellow linebacker and 65th overall pick Logan Wilson. However, those who studied Wilson likely saw Maluia pop out on a few occasions and make great plays. Maluia is an athletic and undersized linebacker, weighing in at only 231 lbs. His athleticism showed up both on tape and on the field, where Maluia displayed versatility across the field being able to both be a thumper as well as a decent coverage player. Maluia’s biggest concern is probably his tackling form, as his aggressiveness caused him to miss a fair amount of times. If Maluia makes the 53 man, he will likely contribute mostly as a special teams player, though his athletic ability might allow him to play a few snaps at defense.
7.230 David Woodard, C, Memphis:
With their final selection in the 2020 NFL draft, the Patriots threw a dart at another reserve lineman. Woodard played all across his the iOL throughout his college career, displaying the versatility that is desired in a backup lineman. Woodard does not have athletic testing available, though some analysts expressed concern about his athletic ability and his size, as Woodard only weighs 291 lbs. As detailed earlier, the Patriots generally concern themself more with technique than pure size and athleticism, and Woodard displays great technique. He graded out as the best run-blocking and second best pass-blocking center in 2019 through PFFs metrics. The Patriots will likely have to still improve Woodard’s technique to make him a future part of the team. Woodard projects as a reserve interior guy, particularly backing up C David Andrews if he makes the team.
Considering that a UDFA has made the New England roster for 16 straight years, I think it is appropriate to talk about some of the more interesting prospects in short. These are not all of the FAs the Patriots signed but some that I think are the most interesting and have the greatest chance to make the team.
For the QB position, the Patriots signed Michigan State QB Brian Lewerke and Louisiana Tech QB J’Mar Smith. Lewerke initially showed promise but a shoulder injury he suffered in 2018 really derailed his career. Smith is more interesting, as he displayed his athleticism throughout his career, as well as possessing great arm strength and ability to make flash off-platform throws. He was suspended for a game, but in his 11 starts he went 10-1 and won C-USA offensive player of the year. Neither QB really poses much threat to Stidham, but if one of them shows promise (especially Smith, who reportedly had a few offers from other teams), don’t be surprised if Belichick makes space for them on the 53 man roster.
For the WR position, which many people were surprised the Patriots did not take a shot at in the draft, the most interesting players are Auburn WR Will Hastings and Miami WR Jeff Thomas. Hastings was Stidham’s former slot receiver in college, racking up 26 receptions and 525 yards with the QB in 2017. Hastings tore his ACL prior to 2018, and Stidham missed his reliable option during the season. Hastings ran a 4.49s 40 and a blistering 6.64s 3-cone during his pro-day. Hasting’s connection with Stidham may allow for him to sneak onto the team. Thomas, on the other hand, mostly specialized as a deep threat for the Hurricanes. Even though he is undersized at 5’9 and 170 lbs, many scouts said he displayed draftable talent throughout his career. The aspect of Thomas that was more influential in making him a UDFA is his character concerns. Thomas has had an issue with nearly every coaching staff that he has interacted with, and got kicked off the 2018 team for attitude issues. If Thomas can pull himself together and realize that there are no more chances, he could transform into a future weapon for the Patriots.
Arizona RB J.J. Taylor is another interesting pickup for the Patriots. He is very short, coming in at only 5’5” tall (never in my life did I think I would be taller than a Pats player), but still manages to pack 185 lbs. Despite his size, Taylor is quite talented, displaying some decent shiftiness as well as the ability to bounce through contact. Perhaps because of his size and elusive playstyle, he has drawn comparisons to former Patriots RB Dion Lewis. If Taylor can show enough ability throughout the offseason, he might be able to get the Patriots to replace a RB, primarily Rex Burkhead, who many Pats fans theorize the team will cut for a few years now.
Ohio State TE Rashod Berry is another interesting player the Patriots picked up. He reportedly may change his position to OLB. Berry had some experience playing defense for Ohio State early in his career, though he did some snaps along the defense for a few games in his senior year. Many Ohio State fans say that Berry is a very athletic player who was underutilized by the Ohio State system. Wherever he plays, it will be interesting to see how his skill translates to the next level.
On the defensive side of the ball the Patriots were able to sign Auburn EDGE Nick Coe after negotiations between him and the Bills fell through. Coe was one of the top ranked free agents after the draft talent-wise, as he produced well in his first few seasons at Auburn. He is a much more prototypical big edge player the Patriots generally use in their system, but also has the versatility to play off the ball. However, Coe seems happiest playing as an edge rusher off the line. Coe’s main issue is his off-the field issues, where he feuded with his coaching staff over his assignments on the team, and also did not put in as much effort as a result. Coe is a very high-potential signing, but he will have to accept whatever role New England gives him if he wants to succeed.
The signing that gave the most guaranteed money went to Arkansas LB De’Jon Harris. Harris primarily plays as a thumping linebacker, which will likely be his role if he manages the Patriots. He has been theorized to fill a similar role to Elandon Roberts did last year (though likely not as a FB on offense). As a thumper, Harris’ best ability is tracking down and meeting the ball carrier, except he does suffer from some tackling issues.
The Patriots somehow managed to convince Bill Murray to join the team, where he will slot in on the defensive line. The DT from William & Mary displays good ability to be disruptive along the defensive line, though keep in mind that this was against FCS competition. Murray also managed to block 10 kicks during his tenure, something that Belichick is surely proud of. He reportedly is also a guy who is great at making his teammates laugh, perhaps like his celebrity counterpart. Considering that DL is a weaker position on the Patriots, Murray has a real shot to get on the team with his talent.
If I am going to talk about UDFAs that have a great chance of making the team, I am not going to overlook the secondary. The DB that the patriots signed this year was Washington’s Myles Bryant. Bryant is another undersized player, only coming at 5’8” and 183 lbs.. and primarily played free safety in 2019 after playing slot corner for the previous two years. Bryant showed good short-area quickness on the field as well as in athletic testing, running a 6.81s 3-cone. His greatest weakness is tackling, likely worsened by his small size. Bryant will need to improve his tackling if he wants to make the team. I also wanted to shout out 2019 UDFA UNM DB D’Angelo Ross, another undersized corner that showed some promise in the preseason prior to suffering a season-ending injury. I still don’t fully understand why Belichick spends so many premier picks on DBs when he can just pull great ones out of his rear nearly every year in the UDFA market.
Roster Projection:
Projecting the Patriots roster is especially difficult due to the amount of bodies at many positions such as OL, LB, and DB. This problem is exacerbated by the fact I haven’t seen anyone play yet or have the most recent updates on everyone’s health. I am not confident that this roster will be that accurate to the final roster that appears week 1.
QB (2) - Jarrett Stidham, Brian Hoyer
RB (5) - Sony Michel, James White, Rex Burkhead, Brandon Bolden, Damien Harris
FB (1) - Dan Vitale
WR (7) - N’Keal Harry, Mohammed Sanu, Julian Edelman, Marqise Lee, Jakobi Meyers, Matt Slater, Jeff Thomas
TE (2) - Devin Asiasi, Dalton Keene
OL (9) - Isaiah Wynn, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, Marcus Cannon, Yodny Cajuste, Justin Herron, Hjalte Froholdt, Michael Onwenu
DL (4) - Adam Butler, Beau Allen, Lawrence Guy, Byron Cowart
EDGE/LB (9) - Deatrich Wise, Chase Winovich, John Simon, Josh Uche, Anfernee Jennings, Dont’a Hightower, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Cassh Maluia, Brandon King
CB (6) - Stephon Gilmore, Joejuan Williams, Jason McCourty, J.C. Jackson, Jonathan Jones, Justin Bethel,
S (5) - Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Adrian Phillips, Kyle Dugger, Terrence Brooks
K - Justin Rohrwasser
P - Jake Bailey
LS - Joe Cardona
KR and PR - Dugger
The Patriots enter a time of uncertainty that hasn’t existed in my lifetime. This 2020 squad is very hard to predict because of all the unknowns that exist all over the team, most notably at QB. It is possible that the Patriots perform better on the offense this year due to the sheer amount of players that are now healthy, especially alongside the offensive line. Although it is most likely the Patriots will not be a contender this year, depending on how well Stidham and the rest of the offense perform and develop, the team could bring itself into contention as early as 2021. I anxiously, but optimistically, await this team’s future.
submitted by Woodennickel20 to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]

How to Rebuild an Orphan (1-Year Transformation) + Share Your Rebuilds

Last year I took on a god-awful orphan team and over the course of a full year I've transformed it into what I think could be a contender this season, and so I wanted to share! (format is 12-team PPR)
Original Roster (as of 2/20/19) Current Roster
QB - Jameis Winston QB - Kyler Murray
RB - Aaron Jones RB - Christian McCaffrey
RB - Rashaad Penny RB - Miles Sanders
WR - Davante Adams WR - Tyler Lockett
WR - Quincy Enunwa WR - DK Metcalf
WR - Michael Crabtree WR - Deebo Samuel
TE - Hunter Henry TE - Hunter Henry
Flex - Devontae Booker Flex - Kenyan Drake
Flex - Desean Jackson Flex - Anthony Miller
Bench - Sam Bradford, QB Bench - Jameis Winston, QB
Bench - Nick Foles, QB Bench - Dwayne Haskins, QB
Bench - Nick Mullens, QB Bench - Nick Foles, QB
Bench - Tyrod Taylor, QB Bench - Tony Pollard, RB
Bench - Kapri Bibbs, RB Bench - Jaylen Samuels, RB
Bench - Jamaal Charles, RB Bench - Joshua Kelly, RB
Bench - Elijah Penny, RB Bench - Devine Ozigbo, RB
Bench - Jacquizz Rodgers, RB Bench - Kenneth Dixon, RB
Bench - Bo Scarbrough, RB Bench - Mike Boone, RB
Bench - Jamaal Williams, RB Bench - Desean Jackson, WR
Bench - Travis Benjamin, WR Bench - Dede Westbrook, WR
Bench - Jaron Brown, WR Bench - Hunter Renfrow, WR
Bench - Noah Brown, WR Bench - LaViska Shenault Jr., WR
Bench - Robert Davis, WR Bench - Bryan Edwards, WR
Bench - Trent Taylor, WR Bench - Scotty Miller, WR
Bench - ArDarius Stewart, WR Bench - Trey Quinn, WR
Bench - Jimmy Graham, TE Bench - Tyler Johnson, WR
Bench - Will Dissly, TE Bench - Quintez Cephus, WR
Bench - Jake Butt, TE Bench - Quez Watkins, WR
Bench - Jordan Akins, TE Bench - Demarcus Robinson, WR
- Empty Slot- Bench - Jonnu Smith, TE
- Empty Slot - Bench - Foster Moreau, TE
- Empty Slot - Bench - Josh Oliver, TE

Draft #1

While the previous owner left me an awful roster, there was significant rookie capital to work with. Here's how I came out of my rookie draft:
So I came out of the draft with what I believed to be 4 consistent starters in addition to what would become, in all likelihood, some waiver-fodder.
Revisiting my starting lineup, I now have my RB2 slot filled by Sanders, and my young WRs slot into the WR2 & WR3 position. Rashaad Penny and Desean Jackson filled my flex positions. Still not a pretty roster, but workable.

Major Trades - Offseason #1

Trade #1: The Haul
Davante Adams was (and still is) an elite WR1, however, if his prime will be wasted on my dumpster-fire roster, so I work the lines and come up with this trade:
The trade was as close to a win-win as you'll get in dynasty, as he was a contender and I was in full rebuild.
Trade #2: The God Win
Cooper Kupp was a WR1 in terms of PPG the year before, and I was comfortable with him, but his age was still pushing it on a young roster. Again, I think the worst think you can do is waste a player's prime & peak value on a roster that is not ready to win. So during the summer, I'm looking to move him. I score this deal:
By all accounts, I lost this trade. None of the trade calcs liked it for me. Cooper Kupp was an established high-end WR2/low WR1 and, as we all remember, Preston Williams was lighting the world on fire in training camp. This was a pure gut call betting on Godwin's talent and potential for growth.
Trade #3: Keeping up with the Joneses
Aaron Jones was another guy who stood out on my roster as a guy whose prime I would be wasting if I held on to him.
I was super high on Lockett following Doug Baldwin's retirement and was also looking to collect 2020 picks. Pringle was just a throw-in. In hindsight, I definitely lost this trade.

2020 Season

No major trades. Finish 10th with a 4-9 record. My league gives rookie picks in terms of lowest points scored (we penalize tanking severely), I end up with rookie 1.02. My other 2020 1sts I traded for become 1.07 and 1.12.
The day after the superbowl, I make this trade:
Honestly would have made this trade without the 3.03. While I still like Harry, no one can deny he looked awful in his opportunities last year. Kenyan Drake plugs in as an immediate RB1 imo. This was before the David Johnson trade & Drake signing his 1-year transition tag, so you can imagine how hype I was after those items fell into place lol.

Draft #2

I'm very happy with my rookie haul, and it looks like my team has turned the corner. My roster now looks something like:
QB - Kyler Murray
RB - Miles Sanders
RB - Clyde Edwards-Helaire
WR - Chris Godwin
WR - Deebo Samuel
WR - CeeDee Lamb
TE - Hunter Henry
Flex - Kenyan Drake
Flex - Tyler Lockett
With some strong depth at WR. However, this roster still looks a year away from seriously competing.

Major Trades - Offseason #2

Trade #4: Run CMC
There are a couple things you should know about my dynasty philosophy when looking at this trade: (1) I believe you win leagues by having the best starting lineup week-to-week; (2) As such, you should always aim to get the BEST player in every deal you make. Prioritize upgrading a position over accruing depth. There's obviously some wiggle room, gray area, etc. in there, but generally this guides my process.
I was really antsy about making this deal because I know I'm giving up a lot. I posted the trade on the reddit's megathread and folks were telling me I win this trade. I posted it to twitter and the final vote was 45% CMC side, 55% Godwin side. Ultimately, this trade is very fair valuewise, it just comes down to CMC sustaining is uber-elite production and if Lamb & CEH reach their respective ceilings.


So there you have it, a year in review. Overall, I'm pretty happy with this rebuild and I'm pumped for the NFL season! Thanks for reading!

Share some of your best rebuilds in the comments!

submitted by nasserthemaster to DynastyFF [link] [comments]

A Brief History of the Glazer's Failing Ownership of United, and Why the Notion that They Are Not to Blame for the Club's Decline is Beyond the Pale (x-Post from r/soccer)

I posted the following comment in a thread on soccer yesterday, and one of your lads kindly asked me to post it here for the United community to read. First though, a confession: I'm a Liverpool fan (*vinyl screech*). Now, at this point I'm not going to say that "I come in peace" or other such bollocks, nor am I here to gloat at your club's current misfortunes. I wrote this comment because for me this goes far deeper than football rivalries or petty schadenfreude. Manchester United is a proud and historic British institution, and the way that it has been shamelessly exploited, mismanaged and bled dry by the the current regime is a national disgrace that for me exemplifies a lot of what is going wrong with football and in fact this country as a whole at the moment. What's equally galling to me is that there are many people here on reddit and other forums who, either through ignorance of the facts or misplaced allegiances, still defend the Glazers for it. As a Liverpool fan I can relate better than most. Like the Glazers, our previous owners Hicks & Gillett bought our club in the mid 2000s with leverage and then unceremoniously dumped the debt onto the club. A decade ago we were an inch away from administration and ruin until John Henry and FSG saved our arses. If you think that can't happen to your club too, then you've not been properly paying attention. So, without freddy adu, here is a no-bullshit guide to the history of the Glazer ownership saga, warts and all...
I see a lot of people defending the Glazers on reddit lately, and usually with the same breath mocking Man Utd fans in a derisive tone for being fickle. "Look how much money they've spent", they'll say, or maybe point to patsy Woodward for orchestrating the on-field shambles. For those of us who have been around long enough to witness the slow-motion train wreck that has been the Glazer's tenure from the beginning however, it has been crystal clear for some time that the Glazers are the authors of their own (or rather the club's) misfortune. For those who are OTL or maybe think the Glazers have done nothing wrong, I'd like to regale you all with a tale of the greatest heist in football history. Like a bad crime novella, it involves intrigue, dirty business practices and, perhaps most bizarrely all, a bucket load of horse cum.
First things first though, dear readers, let me reassure you all that this is not a knee-jerk reaction by United fans to their team's current atrocious form, nor is it born of envy as a consequence of the brilliant resurgency of their noisy neighbours in Manchester and Merseyside (heh). In fact, these protests have been going on quietly behind the scenes ever since the Glazers first took over the reigns of the club 15 years ago...
Let us go back in time now to the EPL at the turn of this century. Manchester United, guided by the savant-like managerial talents of Alex Ferguson, were dominating English football like never before. A decade of almost unparalleled success on the field had elevated United to the pinnacle of British football, both in fan popularity and, more importantly for our story, financially. The club had built a solid international reputation throughout the 90s as a pioneer of the commercial aspect of the game. As an institution they were THE benchmark that all other clubs in Europe measured themselves by. They were the first footy club in Europe (maybe the world) to become publicly listed on a stock exchange, and by the early 2000s had a market capitalisation on the London Stock Exchange of around £750 million, making it by far the most valuable club in world football. They were a model club in every sense, posting annual profits of upwards of £30m which was faithfully pumped back into Ferguson's squad every summer. The post-9/11 world was in some senses a bleak and uncertain time to live in, but what seemed a sure bet to many of us was that Manchester United would continue to be the richest and therefore most successful team in England for evermore. After all, what was there to stop them?
Enter the Glazer family, proprietors of a Florida NFL franchise and a failing shopping mall empire. Beginning in the early 2000s, the reclusive head of the family, Malcolm Glazer, began quietly but diligently acquiring shares in Manchester United. Once he had reached 30% ownership, Glazer senior was obliged by stock exchange rules to make an offer for the remaining shares, which no doubt had been his plan all along. The United board led by CEO David Gill were at first resistant to Glazer's attempt at a hostile takeover and rebuffed his advances, making stern recommendations to the shareholders to reject the offer.
Of particular interest to keen observers were the positions of two of the major shareholders at the time, Irish racehorse breeders John Magnier and J. P. McManus, who together owned around 30% of the shares. In order to reach 75% ownership and force through a total buyout of the club, the Glazers would need to convince the Irish investors to sell their shares at some point. As fate would have it though, Ferguson had recently fallen out in spectacular fashion with Magnier and McManus over the stud rights of a valuable racehorse, the legendary Rock of Gibraltar, which they had gifted to him for his service to the club. The whole thing inevitably ended in court, and now the manager of Manchester United was in the awkward position of being at loggerheads with two of the club's major shareholders. Whether or not this affair was the catalyst, Magnier and McManus soon decided to go against the board's recommendation and sold their shares to the Glazers. Within weeks, the takeover was complete and the Americans were now in control of the richest and best-run club in world football.
It soon emerged, however, that the Glazers had borrowed around £750 million (the full value of the club) in order to buy it, and immediately upon completing the takeover had passed this debt burden onto the club. Manchester United had until that point been completely debt-free and possessed the financial muscle to outspend any club in England and probably the world. Now, under the new ownership, they were hamstrung by a yearly interest bill of around £70m against earnings of £250m, which could only result in stifling the club's ability to compete in the post-Abramovich transfer market. Understandably, many fans were apoplectic at these developments, and demonstrations took place at the last minute to try to stop the deal happening. Famously, the Glazers even required a police escort at their first appearance at Old Trafford, such was the public's disdain.
The fans' concerns quickly proved to be well founded, as despite continued success under Ferguson, expenditure on players was sporadic. Fergie famously lamented that there was "no value in the market", but wiser heads understood that the budget was being constrained by the Glazers. More worryingly for United's finances, however, was that the debt wasn't going down, but rather UP. The Glazers had borrowed via a high interest "PIK loan", which stood at almost 20% APR. All of a sudden, Manchester United, arguably the biggest club in the world, was in deep financial distress. There was even talk of selling the stadium and training ground in order to lighten the albatross of debt hanging around the club's neck. In the end, the Glazers fortuitously managed to refinance the debt by first issuing bonds at a low 5% yield and then listed the club on the NY stock exchange, selling 10% of their shares. The club was now out of immediate danger, but the bulk of the debt remained. According to the latest financial results, United spent £20m on interest payments last year and remain around £400m in the red. To date, the club has spent in excess of £1 billion on servicing this debt.
Today, thanks mostly to the boom in EPL television rights and the efforts of Woodward in cannily exploiting the commercial opportunities afforded by a vast global fanbase, the club is in sound financial health (for the time being at least) and the debt level is sustainable. However, they certainly rode their luck in the early years and selfishly placed the club in an extremely perilous financial position. During the first eight years of their ownership, the club continued to succeed on the pitch despite the Glazers, not because of them. Regardless of the relative lack of investment in the squad throughout this period, United overachieved thanks simply to the brilliance of Ferguson. But since the great man retired in 2013, the Glazers have been badly exposed as having no obvious talent or understanding of football matters by a never-ending chain of bad decisions. As if to add insult to injury, they draw in excess of £30m in dividends and salaries for themselves from the budget each year. The club's fortunes on the pitch are in a tailspin after the last seven years of mismanagement, and yet the Glazers continue to reward themselves for it most handsomely. And for those of you who still point to the lavish spending spree that United has embarked on in recent seasons, know this: not a PENNY of it has come from the pockets of the Glazer family - it has been entirely self-generated by the club's revenues.
In summary then, Manchester United fans' ire is not simply down to poor form on the pitch, but rather the way in which the Glazers bought the club in 2005 with bad debt and the gross mismanagement of it ever since. They relied on the genius of Ferguson for too long and completely bungled his succession. They have proven not only to be poor stewards of the club time after time, but have also badly crippled its finances for decades to come with unnecessary debt. In my opinion, aside from the Munich disaster, the Glazers' parasitic tenure has been the biggest misfortune to ever befall Manchester United.
submitted by Carthagefield to reddevils [link] [comments]

I created a series of 5 videos named "Intro to Power Ratings". These videos help introduce basic concepts when it comes to building and maintaining power rating systems. Might not be a bad idea to build out your own systems during this downtime.

During this period of downtime with no sports it might not be a bad idea to build out frameworks of power ratings for the future so that when sports come back you are ready. If you have no idea how to build power rating systems to help plug into models to guide your bets I have a series of 5 videos that I have made over the past month that help introduce basic concepts when it comes to building out power ratings.
Here is a link to the playlist:
In these videos I use the NFL since its limited number of games made it easier to work with for an educational video. However the concepts outlined in these videos can be applied to any sport. Please keep in mind these videos are intended to teach CONCEPTS. In other words, they are not HOW TO videos on how to build power ratings. Don't watch these videos expecting me to build out a power rating system for you. While I do go into some detail on the coding/programming, I also include links to the spreadsheet and macros featured in the videos so you can skip the videos and just play around with the files/code if you want.
VIDEO 1: ELO SYSTEM - This video teaches the viewer the concepts of the most basic power rating system, ELO. In this video basic excel macro programming is covered and the viewer learns how to convert wins and losses into raw and adjusted win percentages, which can then be used to make win probability predictions. Home/Away advantages and league averages are also covered.
VIDEO 2: PURE POINTS SYSTEM - This video teaches the viewer the concepts of the PURE POINTS rating system. Like with the ELO video, it uses one stat, which is scoring margin as opposed to win percentage. The viewer learns how to calculate raw per game and adjusted per game scoring differential, which can then be used to make predicted margin of victory predictions.
VIDEO 3: OFFENSE/DEFENSE BREAKOUT + MODULAR INFINITE ADAPTABILITY - This video is the first to use multiple statistics and how to operate with multiple inputs. This video uses adjusted points for and adjusted points against. However the real important aspect of this video is the modular and infinite adaptability concepts introduced. When building out a power rating system its best to put in a little extra effort on the front end to make your life easier on the back end. With a modular, infinitely adaptable setup, you can easily plug and play more stats into your system in the future without having to write any new code.
VIDEO 4: PYTHAGOREAN EXPECTATION AND LOG5 WIN PERCENTAGE - This video teaches the concepts of pythagorean win expectation and log 5 win percentage. It also teaches how to find the right exponent for a pythagorean expectation calculation. With pythagorean expectation, you can calculate both predicted margin AND expected win percentage with just one system(as opposed to having to break it out by ELO and PURE POINTS)
VIDEO 5: MULTIPLE STATISTICS, NORMALIZATION, AND LINEALOGISTIC REGRESSION - This final video shows how to incorporate an endless number of stats into your ratings even if they don't relate directly to win/loss or scoring margin, a method that can be used to pick which stats to use in your ratings, how to normalize stats with standard deviation so that they can be combined into one single offensive and defensive rating and then finally one single overall rating. It also touches upon the concepts of linear and logistic regression to predict margin and win probability respectively.
Please keep in mind this is an INTRO to power ratings series. Keyword, INTRO. It's meant to teach basic concepts to get a beginner started. Obviously for those of you like me who are data scientists by profession there are more complex and sophisticated ways to do things, but these videos are not intended for the advanced user.
I think that spending some time to build out some systems right now when nothing is going on is a better use of time than betting on some random sports video game simulation or a 3rd world soccer match.
submitted by wcincedarrapids to sportsbook [link] [comments]

I created a series of 5 videos named "Intro to Power Ratings". These videos help introduce basic concepts when it comes to building and maintaining power rating systems.

During this period of downtime with no sports it might not be a bad idea to build out frameworks of power ratings for the future so that when sports come back you are ready. If you have no idea how to build power rating systems to help plug into models to guide your bets I have a series of 5 videos that I have made over the past month that help introduce basic concepts when it comes to building out power ratings.
Here is a link to the playlist:
In these videos I use the NFL since its limited number of games made it easier to work with for an educational video. However the concepts outlined in these videos can be applied to any sport. Please keep in mind these videos are intended to teach CONCEPTS. In other words, they are not HOW TO videos on how to build power ratings. Don't watch these videos expecting me to build out a power rating system for you. While I do go into some detail on the coding/programming, I also include links to the spreadsheet and macros featured in the videos so you can skip the videos and just play around with the files/code if you want.
VIDEO 1: ELO SYSTEM - This video teaches the viewer the concepts of the most basic power rating system, ELO. In this video basic excel macro programming is covered and the viewer learns how to convert wins and losses into raw and adjusted win percentages, which can then be used to make win probability predictions. Home/Away advantages and league averages are also covered.
VIDEO 2: PURE POINTS SYSTEM - This video teaches the viewer the concepts of the PURE POINTS rating system. Like with the ELO video, it uses one stat, which is scoring margin as opposed to win percentage. The viewer learns how to calculate raw per game and adjusted per game scoring differential, which can then be used to make predicted margin of victory predictions.
VIDEO 3: OFFENSE/DEFENSE BREAKOUT + MODULAR INFINITE ADAPTABILITY - This video is the first to use multiple statistics and how to operate with multiple inputs. This video uses adjusted points for and adjusted points against. However the real important aspect of this video is the modular and infinite adaptability concepts introduced. When building out a power rating system its best to put in a little extra effort on the front end to make your life easier on the back end. With a modular, infinitely adaptable setup, you can easily plug and play more stats into your system in the future without having to write any new code.
VIDEO 4: PYTHAGOREAN EXPECTATION AND LOG5 WIN PERCENTAGE - This video teaches the concepts of pythagorean win expectation and log 5 win percentage. It also teaches how to find the right exponent for a pythagorean expectation calculation. With pythagorean expectation, you can calculate both predicted margin AND expected win percentage with just one system(as opposed to having to break it out by ELO and PURE POINTS)
VIDEO 5: MULTIPLE STATISTICS, NORMALIZATION, AND LINEALOGISTIC REGRESSION - This final video shows how to incorporate an endless number of stats into your ratings even if they don't relate directly to win/loss or scoring margin, a method that can be used to pick which stats to use in your ratings, how to normalize stats with standard deviation so that they can be combined into one single offensive and defensive rating and then finally one single overall rating. It also touches upon the concepts of linear and logistic regression to predict margin and win probability respectively.
Please keep in mind this is an INTRO to power ratings series. Keyword, INTRO. It's meant to teach basic concepts to get a beginner started. Obviously for those of you like me who are data scientists by profession there are more complex and sophisticated ways to do things, but these videos are not intended for the advanced user.
I think that spending some time to build out some systems right now when nothing is going on is a better use of time than betting on some random sports video game simulation or a 3rd world soccer match.
submitted by wcincedarrapids to CFBAnalysis [link] [comments]

Week 15 Matchup Strategy Guide - Part 3 (DFAroto)

Part 3 of 3

Part 1 Right Here:

Part 2 Right Here:


DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average): calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
Weighted DEFENSE: is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-6.5)

Jaguars ATS: 5-8-0 Raiders ATS: 6-7-0
Projected Team Totals: Jaguars 19.5 Raiders 26


Opp (OAK) Pass DVOA: #31
Opp (OAK) Run DVOA: #27
Opp (OAK) Weighted DEF: #31
Injuries to Watch DEF (OAK): LB Marquel Lee (Q) LB Kyle Wilber (Q) CB Daryl Worley (Q) S Erik Harris (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (JAX): WR DJ Chark (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): D.J. Chark (20%) Leonard Fournette (19%) Dede Westbrook (17%) Chris Conley (14%) Seth DeValve (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Leonard Fournette (77%, 18, 6) Ryquell Armstead (23%, 2, 2)

QB/WTE Breakdown

The Jags got blasted at home against the Chargers last week, and Gardner Minshew (2QB stream) did little to instill confidence that he is an upgrade over Nick Foles. While last week was a struggle, Minshew gets an extremely vulnerable Raiders secondary this time around. Oakland has the 31st ranked pass defense by DVOA, and has given up the 2nd most FPPG to QBs on the season. While it would be unwise to trust the rookie signal caller in a 1QB league, he makes for a possible streamer in 2QB or superflex leagues, and should be considered a mid-range QB2 with some upside in Sunday’s matchup. The loss of one of his top weapons does downgrade his outlook slightly, however..
DJ Chark has been ruled out for Week 15 with an ankle injury, leaving the Jags without their most explosive offensive playmaker. That should provide Dede Westbrook (upgrade) with an opportunity to see a high volume of targets against this leaky Raiders secondary. Oakland has allowed the 13th most FPPG to WRs, but their 31st ranked pass DVOA portrays a team that is quite vulnerable through the air. Chris Conley (upgrade) should also see a bump in usage, but he has been extremely boom or bust this season, and is reliant on big plays. Consider Westbrook a borderline WR2 under the circumstances, while Conley can be viewed as risk-reward WR3/4, just know his floor is extremely low. Keelan Cole will step into 3-WR sets with Chark on the sidelines, but he isn’t a realistic fantasy option at this point. None of the Jags TEs have been able to stand out after dealing with so many injuries, but Nick O’Leary did snag a TD last week. O’Leary is a hail mary TE2, although he does have a favorable matchup against a defense ceding the 4th most FPPG to TEs.
RB Breakdown
The running game didn’t have any more success than the passing game against the Chargers, as Leonard Fournette (auto-start) was held to 63 total scoreless yards. The Raiders are less vulnerable to the run than the pass, but have given up the 9th most FPPG to RBs, so Fournette remains a volume based RB1. He’s especially valuable in PPR leagues, as he is consistently among the RB target leaders each week. Ryquell Armstead (stash) is the clear handcuff to Fournette, so roster him if you want to have insurance through the playoffs.


Opp (JAX) Pass DVOA: #21
Opp (JAX) Run DVOA: #31
Opp (JAX) Weighted DEF: #29
Injuries to Watch DEF (JAX): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (OAK): WR Hunter Renfrow (OUT) OT Trent Brown (Q) RB Josh Jacobs (Q, expected to play) WR Marcell Ateman (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Tyrell Williams vs. A.J. Bouye (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Darren Waller (19%) Hunter Renfrow (18%) Tyrell Williams (14%) Jalen Richard (11%) Zay Jones (10%) DeAndre Washington (8%) Josh Jacobs (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: DeAndre Washington (63%, 20, 7) Jalen Richard (38%, 9, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
A nightmare second half of the season continued for the Raiders last week in a blowout loss to the Titans, but Derek Carr (2QB only) was able to finish with a serviceable final fantasy line. Carr has gone over 21 points just once this season, so his ceiling is not something to get excited about. The Jags have given up the 11th most FPPG to QBs, so Carr has a reasonable floor, but can’t be viewed as anything more than a mid-range QB2. Leave him on the wire in most leagues.
A battle with plantar fasciitis might help to explain Tyrell Williams’ (drop) extreme dropoff over the second half of the season, but it appears the wideout will continue playing through the pain this week against the Jags. He hasn’t been a worthwhile starting option in quite some time, and the Jags surrender the 13th fewest FPPG to WRs, so consider him a TD or bust WR4, and keep him on your benches outside extremely deep leagues. Darren Waller (volume upgrade) is the real WR1 on this team, and his high weekly target floor makes him an attractive TE option at a position that is so heavily TD-dependent. The Jags have given up the 11th fewest FPPG to TEs, but Waller is too involved to be anything less than a top-6 TE1. Get him fired up this week to ensure you get a stable floor from that spot on your roster. No other Raiders pass catcher has emerged as fantasy relevant, so Waller is likely the only player that should be near a starting lineup this week.
RB Breakdown
Stud rookie RB Josh Jacobs (upgrade if healthy) was unable to play through his shoulder injury last week, leading to a workhorse level role for DeAndre Washington (stash). Jacobs currently plans to play on Sunday, so owners should put Washington on benches, and continue to leave Jalen Richard on the waiver wire. The Jags are an exploitable matchup on the ground - 4th most FPPG to RBs - so if Jacobs is active he needs to be in all lineups as a solid RB2. Washington should remain rostered as a solid handcuff.
Score Prediction: Raiders 21, Jaguars 20

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Browns ATS: 5-7-1 Cardinals ATS: 7-5-1
Projected Team Totals: Browns 25.5 Cardinals 23


Opp (ARI) Pass DVOA: #29
Opp (ARI) Run DVOA: #13
Opp (ARI) Weighted DEF: #26
Injuries to Watch DEF (ARI): CB Kevin Peterson (Q) LB Joe Walker (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CLE): C JC Tretter (Q) OT Chris Hubbard (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Odell Beckham vs. Patrick Peterson (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Jarvis Landry (30%) Odell Beckham (23%) Kareem Hunt (17%) Antonio Callaway (12%) David Njoku (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Nick Chubb (70%, 16, 1) Kareem Hunt (62%, 11, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Cleveland won the battle of Ohio last week, it wasn’t pretty, and it wasn’t without drama. Baker Mayfield (upgrade) was inconsistent yet again, throwing for only 192 scoreless yards, with two interceptions. He’s sandwiched two serviceable fantasy outings with three that weren’t over the last five, so a bounce back seems likely. Arizona has proven time and again they can’t guard anyone, ranking 29th in Pass DVOA and 26th in Weighted Defense - ceding 24.5 FPPG to QBs, and 25.4 to WRs. Mayfield becomes an appealing matchup based QB1 this week, consider him a top-10 option.
The Cleveland passing game has been a wasteland all season, with Jarvis Landry (upgrade PPR) being the only solid fantasy asset. Odell Beckham is having the worst season of his career, and is reportedly playing through a sports hernia. His expected shadow matchup with CB Patrick Peterson isn’t imposing, as Peterson has struggled against No. 1 WRs (Rotoworld). A viable fantasy day isn’t out of the question, yet OBJ is far from trustworthy at this point in the season, especially since we know now he’s been playing through injury. That being said, Arizona cedes explosive pass plays (20+yards) at a 12% clip, 3rd worst in the NFL (sharpfootballstats). Consider him a boom-or-bust WR2 in the great on-paper matchup. Landry on the other hand, has vacuumed up at least seven targets in every game over the last five weeks, clearing 10 targets in three out of five. He’s seeing monster usage, and there’s no reason to expect it to slow down. He’s a borderline WR1, and needs to be in all lineups. David Njoku returned last week, splitting time with fellow tight ends Stephen Carlson, and Ricky Seals-Jones. This is a smash spot for the position - ARI hemorrhages 13.1 FPPG to TEs, league worst - but with Njoku popping up on the injury report again with a knee issue, plus the timeshare at tight end, there really isn’t a viable fantasy play here.
RB Breakdown
Like many other backfields in the NFL, the Cleveland Browns are now utilizing a committee, to the dismay of Nick Chubb (upgrade standard) owners everywhere. Fortunately, both Chubb and Kareem Hunt (upgrade PPR) are seeing solid touch counts, and having both on the field at the same time has become a regular occurrence since Hunt became available. Arizona possesses a much better Run DVOA than Pass DVOA, but game-script and scoring opportunities should work in favor of the Cleveland backfield. Arizona plays at the 3rd fastest pace in the NFL, so there should be plenty of opportunities to go around. Consider Chubb an RB1, and Hunt a borderline RB2 play in PPR settings - ARI cedes 19.5 FPPG to the position.


Opp (CLE) Pass DVOA: #13
Opp (CLE) Run DVOA: #25
Opp (CLE) Weighted DEF: #19
Injuries to Watch DEF (CLE): DE Olivier Vernon (OUT) CB Eric Murray (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (ARI): WR Andy Isabella (Q) OL Justin Pugh (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Christian Kirk (24%) Larry Fitzgerald (19%) Kenyan Drake (16%) Pharoh Cooper (11%) KeeSean Johnson (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Kenyan Drake (65%, 14, 3) David Johnson (37%, 5, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Cardinals season has taken a downward plunge in recent weeks, and Kyler Murray and company have only managed to score 24 combined points in back-to-back matchups (Rotoworld). Murray has made some downright silly mistakes, and while some of it can be chalked up to being a rookie, some mistakes shouldn’t be seen at the NFL level. His O-line isn’t doing him any favors either, he’s the most-sacked QB of 2019 ( At home against Cleveland is the easiest matchup he’s seen in recent weeks, but it’s no cakewalk - Cleveland has a sturdy secondary, ranking in the top-half for Pass DVOA - and cedes just 18.2 FPPG to QBs and 20.6 to WRs. Still, Murray has demonstrated a high-floor through multiple tough matchups, and warrants every week QB1 consideration. Just be aware that although he always has boom potential, this week projects more as a floor performance.
Although he’s done little since his Week 10 explosion, Christian Kirk’s (upgrade volume) 8.8 targets per game rank 13th among wideouts this season (Rotoworld). Again, the matchup doesn’t scream boom week, but Cleveland has been inconsistent at best this season, and Kirk’s volume should keep him in the WR3 ranks. Larry Fitzgerald, after turning back the clock in the beginning of the season, has bottomed out over the second half. He shouldn’t be considered anything more than a low-end WR4, so look elsewhere. The auxiliary passing options shouldn't be considered for Arizona.
RB Breakdown
Like the Cleveland backfield, the Arizona backfield is devolving into a two man RBBC. Unlike Cleveland, it’s not bearing fruit in the way of fantasy points for either running back. Kenyan Drake has ceded snaps to David Johnson since the bye week, and at this point neither can be fully trusted. Drake is the preferred option, and the matchup is good on paper, but due to DJ’s involvement, he’s no more than a back-end RB2. DJ is a big-balls dart throw; it can’t be recommended. CLE cedes 18.6 FPPG to RBs.
Score Prediction: Browns 24, Cardinals 21

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)

Falcons ATS: 5-8-0 49ers ATS: 8-4-1
Projected Team Totals: Falcons 18.75 49ers 29.25


Opp (SF) Pass DVOA: #2
Opp (SF) Run DVOA: #9
Opp (SF) Weighted DEF: #2
Injuries to Watch DEF (SF): DE Dee Ford (OUT) DT DJ Jones (OUT) CB Richard Sherman (OUT) S Jaquiski Tartt (OUT) DT Jullian Taylor (OUT) CB K’Waun Williams (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (ATL): OG James Carpenter (OUT) OT Ty Sambrailo (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Julio Jones (22%) Calvin Ridley (20%) Russell Gage (16%) Austin Hooper (16%) Devonta Freeman (11%) Christian Blake (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Devonta Freeman (67%, 21, 4) Brian Hill (19%, 9, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Atlanta’s second half resurgence continued against a rudderless Carolina team last week. Matt Ryan (downgrade) has returned to form of late, posting back-to-back solid fantasy performances. His ankle injury may have been the reason for the mid-season stumble, but either way, against a ferocious 49ers defense and without offensive weapon Calvin Ridley (OUT-IR), just isn’t the time to chase points. While the argument can be made that the San Francisco defense is banged up, they still possess most of the pass rushers that have carried them this season. Atlanta has struggled to keep Ryan upright, he’s been sacked the 5th most in the NFL (teamrankings). He’s no more than a back-end QB2 in a tough matchup - SF gives up just 15 FPPG to QBs and 17.9 to WRs.
Ridley’s injury vacated 20% of the target share to Atlanta’s pass catchers, and Russell Gage is the best bet to assume his snaps and some of his target share. Yet, he still projects as a distant third option to Julio Jones (upgrade volume) and Austin Hooper (upgrade volume). The remaining receivers split snaps evenly last week, and aren’t realistic options in the tough draw. Julio should be peppered with targets san Ridley, and should be treated as an every-week WR1 regardless of matchup. Same goes for Hooper, both should be active in most lineups.
RB Breakdown
Since returning from injury, Devonta Freeman (upgrade volume) has accumulated 20+ touches in two of three games. As long as he’s operating as the clear lead back and receiving the bulk of the touches, he’ll continue to be a floor-play RB2. The matchup is imposing - SF cedes just 12.2 FPPG to RBs - but Freeman’s volume should stabilize his floor, just don’t expect a big day.


Opp (ATL) Pass DVOA: #26
Opp (ATL) Run DVOA: #16
Opp (ATL) Weighted DEF: #23
Injuries to Watch DEF (ATL): DE Allen Bailey (OUT) CB Isaiah Oliver (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (SF): None
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): George Kittle (23%) Deebo Samuel (20%) Emmanuel Sanders (17%) Kendrick Bourne (12%) Ross Dwelley (12%) Tevin Coleman (8%) Raheem Mostert (5%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Raheem Mostert (60%, 12, 2) Matt Breida (18%, 7, 1) Tevin Coleman (16%, 3, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The 49ers won the game of the year last week, in an exciting shootout on the road against the New Orleans Saints, 48-46. Jimmy Garoppolo (upgrade) showed critics a side of him many thought he didn’t possess, by not just managing the game, but gun slinging his way to victory when facing a deficit. He may be more than an elite game manager, rolling up 349-yards passing, with four touchdowns and an interception. On tap is an exploitable secondary that has been dissected by opposing signal callers routinely - ATL cedes 22.1 FPPG to QBs and 24.3 to WRs - Jimmy G is a very attractive QB1 streaming option in the plus matchup.
The addition of Emmanuel Sanders (upgrade) and Deebo Samuel, with the emergence of Kendrick Bourne, has created an explosive receiving corps for the 49ers. The three have settled in as the fulltime wideouts, clearing up what used to be a mess of a rotation. Sanders and Samuel are both solid fantasy plays against an Atlanta team that boasts a true pass funnel; ranking much higher in Run DVOA than Pass DVOA. Adding to that, CB Desmond Trufant has been placed on IR, creating an even softer matchup. The concern is volume. Positive game-script early could erase the need for passing, so hopefully the injuries to San Francisco’s defense allow Atlanta to stay in the game. Consider Sanders a WR2, and Samuel an upside WR3. Kendrick Bourne is a no more than a DFS dart throw. George Kittle is an every week top-3 option at tight end. Fire him up - ATL cedes 7.5 FPPG to the position.
RB Breakdown
Two camps exist when it comes to the 49ers backfield. There are those that think Raheem Mostert has completed a hostile takeover, and is now the lead back. And there are those that think a Kyle Shanahan offense takes the hot hand approach, and that Matt Breida or Tevin Coleman could be next in-line to have the big week. Kyle Shanahan has stated that Mostert has “earned” his role as the lead ball-carrier, but we’ve seen that talk before from coaches, just look at Ronald Jones. Either way, Mostert has earned every-week RB2 consideration, but be warned, this backfield can change in an instant. Breida and Coleman are much riskier propositions, and can’t be started as more than desperation dart throws. They’ll likely still be involved in some capacity, but it’s not worth betting on.
Score Prediction: 49ers 30, Falcons 17

LA Rams (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Rams ATS: 9-4-0 Cowboys ATS: 7-6-0
Projected Team Totals: Rams 25.25 Cowboys 23.75


Opp (DAL) Pass DVOA: #24
Opp (DAL) Run DVOA: #19
Opp (DAL) Weighted DEF: #21
Injuries to Watch DEF (DAL): LB Leighton Vander Esch (OUT) LB Sean Lee (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAR): TE Gerald Everett (OUT) OT Rob Havenstein (D)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Robert Woods (30%) Tyler Higbee (19%) Cooper Kupp (16%) Gerald Everett (15%) Josh Reynolds (10%) Todd Gurley (9%) Brandin Cooks (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Todd Gurley (80%, 27, 4) Malcolm Brown (20%, 5, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
After his first blow-up week in a long time, Jared Goff (streamer) returned to his mediocre 2019 levels in Week 14’s win over Seattle, at least in terms of fantasy points. The positive is that the Rams offense suddenly looks at least partially back to its old ways, scoring 28 and 34 points the last two weeks, albeit against questionable defenses. This week, Goff will take aim at the Cowboys - 24th ranked pass DVOA but allowing the 13th fewest FPPG to QBs. Dallas got lit up by Mitchell Trubisky last week, and are on a downward trend overall, so this actually sets up as a favorable matchup for Goff. Consider him on the QB1/2 borderline, and ride him if you are thin at QB as he should be able to produce a point total that lands somewhere in between his last two performances.
What started as a year for the record books has turned into a disappointment in a hurry for Cooper Kupp (start). Despite the Rams being without their top TE Gerald Everett (out again this week) the past few weeks, Kupp hasn’t gone over 70-receiving yards since Week 8. He snagged a TD last week to salvage his day, and could be on the verge of a breakout day with the Rams offense starting to hum again. The Cowboys have given up the 8th fewest FPPG to WRs, so this isn’t an ideal matchup, but Kupp should still be viewed on the WR2/3 borderline and be in most lineups this week. The only consistent producer over the last month at WR for the Rams has been Robert Woods (auto-start). Woods has gone over 90-yards in 4 straight games he’s played in, and looks to be Goff’s #1 target at this point in the season. Consider him a borderline WR1 this week. Brandin Cooks (volume downgrade) just hasn’t seen much volume since returning from his multi-week concussion absence, and played about a third of the offensive snaps last week. He can break a big play at any time, but his role is too tough to trust as more than a WR3/4 at this point. If you have the depth, Cooks should likely be on your bench as only a part-time player in a difficult matchup. With Everett out again this week, Tyler Higbee (volume upgrade) will resume his role as the clear pass-catching TE for the Rams. He’s won a lot of matchups for owners the past two weeks, and should continue to thrive as long as Everett is sidelined. The Cowboys have given up the 10th most FPPG to TEs, so there’s no reason to view Higbee as less than an elite TE1 this week.
RB Breakdown
Perhaps part of the reason that the Rams have looked re-energized the last two weeks is the commitment to the run game with Todd Gurley (volume upgrade). The offensive line and entire team are getting healthier, and Gurley is getting the volume necessary for an RB1 valuation. The Cowboys have given up the 16th fewest FPPG to RBs and have the 19th ranked rush defense by DVOA, so the matchup is basically a wash. Consider Gurley on the RB1/2 borderline, and get him locked into your lineup for a game the Rams absolutely have to win to remain in the playoff race. Malcolm Brown makes for a worthwhile handcuff.


Opp (LAR) Pass DVOA: #9
Opp (LAR) Run DVOA: #3
Opp (LAR) Weighted DEF: #6
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAR): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (DAL): None
Key WCB matchups: Amari Cooper vs. Jalen Ramsey (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Michael Gallup (20%) Amari Cooper (19%) Randall Cobb (15%) Jason Witten (15%) Ezekiel Elliott (10%) Blake Jarwin (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Ezekiel Elliott (99%, 21, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
While the Cowboys have been a huge disappointment overall, they remain firmly in the playoff race due to the antiquated NFL seeding rules, and their QB Dak Prescott (auto-start) has shown he is deserving of a huge contract extension. The Rams have given up the 12th fewest FPPG to QBs, and have the 9th ranked pass DVOA, but Prescott will be needed for a big day if Dallas is to get a win at home. Their solid projected point total, and Dak’s consistent presence as a top-5 QB in fantasy, means that Prescott should be a fixture in fantasy lineups in the second week of fantasy playoffs. He’s a solid QB1.
Amari Cooper (slight downgrade) may not like the term “garbage time”, but it’s hard to argue that’s not the scenario in which he caught his TD pass and salvaged his day against the Bears. Regardless, Cooper was able to produce despite looking less than 100%, and isn’t on the injury report this week. However, he’s likely to face Jalen Ramsey in shadow coverage this week, which is a concern considering just how good Ramsey has been since landing in LA. Cooper has been more effective against shadow coverage this year than in previous years, and his role in the offense combined with his individual talent make him tough to bench. View him as a high-end WR2 that is capable of breaking Ramsey’s coverage, but could also finish with a disappointing 2-30-0 type of day as well. Michael Gallup (upgrade) has been relatively productive over the last month, and he could benefit from Ramsey’s focus on Cooper. The Rams overall cede the 15th fewest FPPG to WRs, so this is a spot for Gallup to potentially come through for owners. Consider him a mid-range WR2 with upside this week in a game the Boys will likely need to throw heavily to win. Randall Cobb has benefitted from the high volume of passing in the Cowboys rough last five games, but will likely see a lot of highly-graded CB Nickell Robey-Coleman in the slot (PFF). Consider Cobb a low-end WR3 whose ceiling isn’t extremely high, but whose floor makes for a useful asset in deeper leagues. Jason Witten and Blake Jarwin have rendered each other relatively unstartable this season, and both should be viewed as low-volume TE2s. Neither is worth starting this week against a Rams squad giving up the 7th fewest FPPG to TEs.
RB Breakdown
The Cowboys were without Tony Pollard last week, but that didn’t serve to change their game plan much as Ezekiel Elliott (auto-start) has been a workhorse all year long. Pollard is expected to return on Sunday, but Zeke will get his 20+ touches again this week regardless. The Rams are stout on the ground - 3rd best DVOA and 10th fewest FPPG to RBs- but Zeke is an easy RB1 due to his volume and talent. Get him locked into your lineup, and keep Pollard rostered as a feel-good insurance policy.
Score Prediction: Rams 21, Cowboys 17

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at LA Chargers

Vikings ATS: 7-6-0 Chargers ATS: 4-7-3
Projected Team Totals: Vikings 24 Chargers 21.5


Opp (LAC) Pass DVOA: #20
Opp (LAC) Run DVOA: #23
Opp (LAC) Weighted DEF: #18
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAC): LB Uchenna Nwosu (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIN): RB Alexander Mattison (Q) WR Bisi Johnson (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Stefon Diggs vs. Casey Hayward (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Stefon Diggs (20%) Dalvin Cook (15%) Kyle Rudolph (13%) Irv Smith (13%) Bisi Johnson (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Dalvin Cook (47%, 20, 2) Alexander Mattison (37%, 16, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Last week was a game that fantasy owners always fear; the home favorite Vikings so outmatched the injury riddled Lions that none of the offensive weapons were needed for a big day to capture the win. Kirk Cousins (low-end QB1) was solid as a game manager, but finished with only 242 yards and 1 TD. This week he’ll likely be in a more competitive game with the Chargers, who have given up the 5th fewest FPPG to QBs. While this should lead to higher volume for Kirk, the matchup concern is a legitimate reason to consider keeping him on the bench. Getting Adam Thielen back from injury should help to establish his floor, but his ceiling isn’t as high considering the Chargers are not often involved in shootouts. Owners can view Cousins as a low-end QB1, and throw him in lineups if they don’t have a safer and higher upside option.
Cousins will have stud receiver Adam Thielen (downgrade) back on the field this week, and that means owners will have a tough decision to make with their lineups. Stefon Diggs (start) is likely to see Casey Hayward in shadow coverage this week, which would leave Thielen with more positive matchups, but Diggs is easier to trust given his body of work throughout the year. The Chargers have given up the 3rd fewest FPPG to WRs this year, giving both receivers a slight downgrade in outlook. Consider Thielen a WR3, and Diggs a WR2. Both have a solid case to be in starting lineups this week, but Diggs is the slightly preferred play. Kyle Rudolph (downgrade) gets a tough potential individual matchup with stud safety Derwin James, and needs to be pushed just outside the TE1 ranks this week. The Chargers have given up the 9th fewest FPPG to TEs, and Rudolph is quite TD-dependent, so consider your options before plugging him in. Irv Smith simply isn’t seeing the volume to be trusted at this point, so he should be viewed as a low-end TE2 in a tough matchup.
RB Breakdown
Fantasy superstar Dalvin Cook (auto-start, upgrade) was subject to the same issue as Cousins, as he saw an uncharacteristic 47% snap share, but still was able to save his line with a few nice runs and a short TD plunge. This week sets up much better for Cook, as the game should be competitive throughout, and the Chargers are more vulnerable to the run than the pass. They’ve given up the 13th most FPPG to RBs and have a bottom-third run DVOA, so get Cook fired up as an elite RB1 once again. Keep Alexander Mattison (stash) rostered as a top-3 handcuff, even if he ends up being ruled out. If Cook were to suffer a setback or pick up a minor injury, Mattison would be an elite RB1 for the fantasy finals assuming he’s healthy.


Opp (MIN) Pass DVOA: #11
Opp (MIN) Run DVOA: #7
Opp (MIN) Weighted DEF: #9
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIN): S Jayron Kearse (OUT) CB Xavier Rhodes (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAC): None
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Keenan Allen (23%) Hunter Henry (20%) Austin Ekeler (17%) Mike Williams (13%) Melvin Gordon (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Austin Ekeler (49%, 12, 5) Melvin Gordon (46%, 17, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Chargers came a bit out of nowhere last week to drop 45 points in their win over the Jags. Philip Rivers (slight downgrade) eclipsed 25 points for the first time this season, and was dealing all game long. He’ll face a stiffer matchup from the Vikings - Minnesota cedes the 11th fewest FPPG to QBs and has the 11th ranked pass DVOA. Consider Rivers a mid-range QB2; his ceiling isn’t extremely high but his weapons should establish his floor as a solid asset in 2QB or superflex leagues.
Still not producing at levels owner are accustomed to, Keenan Allen (start) has at least returned solid value over his past 4 games with good yardage and 2 total TDs. Mike Williams (downgrade PPR) FINALLY scored his first TD of the year, after getting 10 last year, and continues to make impressive contested chunk catches week in and week out. The Vikings have given up the 8th most FPPG to WRs, and Xavier Rhodes is no longer a shutdown shadow corner, so both WRs are worth starting consideration. Consider Allen a WR2, with upside in PPR leagues, and view Williams as a WR3 with an upgrade in standard leagues. The Vikings pass rush is impressive, and the Chargers O-line has struggled to keep Rivers upright against top defensive lines, so having the time to throw downfield might make Allen more productive than Williams this week. Hunter Henry (start) found the end zone last week, and despite some low yardage totals the last month remains a solid TE1 this week. The Vikings have allowed the 14th most FPPG to TEs, so this isn’t a shy-away matchup by any means. Get Henry active unless you have a top-3 alternative, as he might benefit from additional short throws due to Rivers needing to get the ball out quick.
RB Breakdown
Perhaps the most important player to the Chargers this year has been the explosive and dynamic all around back, Austin Ekeler (auto-start). He put up a career-high 213 scrimmage yards in the win last week, which was buoyed by an impressive 84 yard catch and run TD. Melvin Gordon (PPR downgrade) got in on the action by rolling up 84 total yards and a TD, and should continue to handle a slight majority of the carries. Ekeler’s role is slightly more valuable, however, as his looks in the passing game often give him room to make plays in the open field, and give him a higher floor in PPR leagues. Consider Ekeler on the RB1/2 borderline, especially in PPR formats, and Gordon can be viewed as a solid RB2. Both should be in lineups this week, despite the Vikings giving up the 6th fewest FPPG to RBs, but Ekeler is a bit safer as he doesn’t require rushing lanes up the middle or goal-line opportunities to be able to rack up the points.
Score Prediction: Vikings 23, Chargers 16

Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)

Colts ATS: 6-5-2 Saints ATS: 8-5-0
Projected Team Totals: Colts 18.75 Saints 27.25


Opp (NO) Pass DVOA: #10
Opp (NO) Run DVOA: #10
Opp (NO) Weighted DEF: #7
Injuries to Watch DEF (NO) Friday Report: LB Kiko Alonso (DNP) S Vonn Bell (DNP) CB Patrick Robinson (DNP) DE Cameron Jordan (LP) LB AJ Klein (LP)
Injuries to Watch OFF (IND) Friday Report: WR TY Hilton (LP) OL Le’Raven Clark (DNP)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): T.Y. Hilton (24%) Zach Pascal (20%) Jack Doyle (15%) Parris Campbell (15%) Nyheim Hines (12%) Deon Cain (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Nyheim Hines (56%, 8, 5) Marlon Mack (41%, 13, 0) Jordan Wilkins (14%, 1, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
This season has gone south fast for the Colts, dropping five of their last six games, and Jacoby Brissett (downgrade) has been much less effective in the second half of the season. He was able to take advantage of the Buccaneers ridiculously bad secondary last week in a close loss, but will face a stiffer challenge this week. The Saints give up the 10th most FPPG to QBs, but have the 10th best pass DVOA, and Brissett may be without his top WR again this week. Consider him a low-upside QB2, and don’t look his way unless desperate in a 2QB or superflex league.
TY Hilton (injury downgrade) is currently listed as a game time decision for MNF, making him a risky starting proposition due to the fact that most of the alternative options in your lineup will have already played by the time we get final clarity on his status. Unless there is a report stating definitively he will suit up, it’s best to avoid him this week. If you own Zach Pascal (start only if Hilton sits), you could also use him as a pivot option in case Hilton is ruled out before kickoff. If that’s the case, it would leave Pascal in position to soak up another high target total. He’s been extremely productive the past two weeks, and the Saints give up the 3rd most FPPG to WRs, so if he’s the #1 option this week he should be in your lineup. However, it’s hard to bank on this as Hilton likely won’t be declared active or inactive until just before kickoff, so it’s tough to bench more established studs for him during Sunday’s games. Consider Pascal a borderline WR2 if Hilton sits, but he’s no more than a boom-bust WR3/4 if Hilton plays. It’s likely best to avoid this situation entirely if you can, and either player could potentially see Marcus Lattimore in shadow coverage if the Saints decide to go that route as well. With Eric Ebron out for the year, Jack Doyle (upgrade) has shown flashes, but put up a 2-27 dud last week. Brissett likes throwing to his TEs, and Doyle is a great red-zone threat, so with the scarcity of quality options at the position Doyle is a mid-range TE1. The Saints are middle of the pack against TEs, so get him in your lineups this week unless you have a higher floor elite option.
RB Breakdown
Another tough draw is on deck for Marlon Mack (volume upgrade). He played 41% of snaps in his return from injury, receiving only 13 touches. Still, he looked healthy, and was clearly the lead back. The Colts will likely increase his workload moving forward, and he should see closer to 20 touches this week, game-script permitting. New Orleans has only ceded 14.2 FPPG to the position, but Mack’s projected volume keep him in the RB2 ranks. Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins are merely afterthoughts in this offense with the return of the Mack, and both can be safely dropped.


Opp (IND) Pass DVOA: #14
Opp (IND) Run DVOA: #20
Opp (IND) Weighted DEF: #15
Injuries to Watch DEF (IND) Friday Report: CB Kenny Moore (DNP) CB Pierre Desir (LP)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NO) Friday Report: OT Terron Armstead (LP) OL Will Clapp (LP) OG Andrus Peat (DNP)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Michael Thomas (30%) Alvin Kamara (22%) Jared Cook (15%) Ted Ginn (10%) Tre’Quan Smith (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Alvin Kamara (76%, 17, 6) Latavius Murray (33%, 9, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Lamar Jackson broke Michael Vick’s single-season rushing record for a quarterback on Thursday Night Football this week, so it would be fitting for Primetime Drew Brees (upgrade) to break the all-time passing touchdown record on Monday Night Football in the same week. Brees is sitting at 537 career touchdown passes, just two shy of Peyton Manning. However, Tom Brady is at 536, so it’s possible that going into MNF, Brees will be chasing both Manning and Brady ( Indianapolis has been fading of late, Jameis Winston just posted 456-yards and four touchdowns against a usually solid secondary. Monday feels like it’ll be a special moment for Brees, he’s a top-5 QB option, fire him up.
Michael Thomas (upgrade) is also chasing greatness, going after Marvin Harrison’s single-season reception record of 143. Thomas is just twenty-three catches shy with three weeks left to go ( Indy’s zone defense should provide plenty of underneath windows for the stud wideout, he’s an every-week elite WR1. The other wideouts are riskier: neither Ted Ginn or Tre’Quan Smith can be relied upon, and should be treated as boom-or-bust dart throws. Jared Cook has emerged as the No. 3 passing option since Brees returned from injury, vacuuming up a 15% target share in the last six weeks. He’s expected to suit up Monday, after a concussion knocked him out of last week's barn burner. He’s an every week TE1 - IND cedes 7.3 FPPG to the position.
RB Breakdown
It was extremely disappointing to watch the Saints roll up yards and points in the shootout last week, while Alvin Kamara (upgrade) busted on 17 touches. Latavius Murray was given fewer snaps and touches than Kamara, but was able to parlay his limited opportunity into a successful fantasy outing. Unfortunately, that’s just fantasy football sometimes; a plethora of variables exist and many cannot be predicted. Kamara owners that managed to survive the opening round of playoffs, despite his unfortunate bust week, need to renew their faith for this one. Indy cedes just 14.4 FPPG to RBs - but they are bottom-12 in Run DVOA. Additionally, we may be back to a reality in which the Saints score 30 a week in The Big Easy. I’m not betting against the positive game-script the home matchup should provide; Lat “Pulldown” Murray can be considered a viable, albeit slightly unpredictable, flex option as well.
Score Prediction: Saints 35, Colts 20
submitted by Roto_G to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

LONG POST ALERT: Trusting the Process - what I'm keeping the same and what I'm changing for next year

Edit: Wow, thanks for the upvotes and comments guys! This sub has helped me out plenty of times so glad I could give something back people thought was useful!

I've been seeing a lot of posts about which players were league winners / losers this year and Must Draft / Do not Draft for 2020 lists already. While it's useful data to have, I think the more important information to have as team managers are the process hits / misses from the year, rather than the player hits / misses. Taking CMC at number 2 overall probably paid off for you regardless of whether you autodrafted or put in a whole offseason of research - and taking Kamara 3rd or 4th overall probably bit you regardless. We can't control who overperforms or underperforms consensus, but what we CAN control is how we choose to build our teams and what external knowledge we use to help our decisions (and how much weight we give that).

I know every league is different and there are plenty of cat-skinning techniques that will win you a league. But I figured I would list everything that worked for me process-wise this year (and everything that didn't) in case any of it is useful to anyone else on this sub. I had a good year this year, cashing more often than not in the leagues that I played, so there's more that worked that didn't. I'd be curious to hear what adjustments people made before this season or are considering making to their process after this season. Even if people disagree with some of what I've posted, I think that's good too because it hopefully means people think about WHY they disagree and it helps inform their process that way for next year as well. Here goes!

WORKED: Having lots of high floor players
Once I was past the first few rounds of startups/redrafts last year, I targeted a lot of high-floor players (slot receivers like Beasley, Crowder, etc., RBs like James White). They seem undervalued in general, but they helped we win a couple championships. Having a lot of floor players meant that I was still alive in matchups for longer and gave me the option of ceiling-gambling in late games if necessary or just keeping more floor guys in there to lock in a win if I'd done well enough early. This particularly helped in bigger leagues (14-16 teams) where just being able to start a guy at each position knowing they'll definitely score points is usually enough to win you a matchup. I'm going to roll this strategy out again next year for sure. I've also tended to notice that once I'm past round 10ish in a lot of leagues the rest of my picks tend to be the same so if the bottom of my roster shares are the same in multiple leagues, I really want to avoid a large bust component there!­

FAILED: Stockpiling TEs late in a TE premium league
One of the leagues I played in this year was a TE premium league. Rather than go hard early after one of the blue chip guys (Kelce, Ertz, Kittle) I thought that targeting a bunch of TEs late (Burton, Olsen, etc.) late would be an easy way to get decent roster contributors. This didn't work out since TE has been such a wasteland the last couple of years that there aren’t really "meh" options, just good options or bad options. Next year, if I miss out on the TE studs early, I'm going to gamble on upside since the positional floor is so low that floor plays aren't worth it.

**WORKED: Going positionless (BPA) for the first few rounds.*\*
This gets preached a lot and I hadn't really bought into it before this year. But two things happened which made me finally build a positionless draft spreadsheet this year. One was an absolutely disastrous league in 2018 where around rounds 3/4 I was set on drafting RB followed by WR and after seeing Mixon go off the board I drafted McKinnon, and followed that up with Baldwin right after Cooper went off the board. Yup. I wanted to avoid that disaster again and make it easier for me to pivot positions. This was helped by joining a league with an interesting format (2QB, 8 W/T FLEX) which meant I had to actually chase total value rather than positional value. I ended up winning that league this year I think in part to having a slight head start in truly going BPA in the startup draft. If anyone's actually curious about how I built that spreadsheet, just let me know in the comments and I'll post info there.

WORKED: Waiting on drafting QBs, but drafting a few of them
A little bit of a follow-on from the floor section, but if you're investing in a lot of surefire "floor" at WRB once you're past the blue chip guys, you have to chase ceiling somewhere. I think that QB is the best place to chase it since you can scoop a couple QBs late in drafts. I moneyed in a few leagues this year behind the exact same unsexy trio of Cousins, Brissett, and Fitzpatrick. It cost me almost no draft capital and it meant that at least ONE of them had a streamable matchup I could confidently attack for 20-25+ points each week. QBs are a nice dynasty asset to have too IMO given that they stay in the league relatively longer so it never hurts to have a couple extra lying around.

FAILED: Not valuing RB stashes more than other positions
I stashed a lot of young WR this year (Boykin, Quinn, etc) that haven't panned out. In a lot of leagues, my decision for this offseason for them is either hold or cut, since it's very difficult to get any picks/players in return for them. I'm sure there's lots of Isabella owners out there in the same boat! However, I think there are young RB stashes that haven't really contributed yet (Thompson, Hill, Henderson) that you could probably sell for a player or pick if you really wanted. For next year, I think I'll try to stash more at RB than other positions since I think there's more resale value in the position, so the initial draft capital isn't as much of a potential waste.

WORKED: Relying less on Vegas lines as a tiebreakerI
was sports betting for years before starting to play fantasy back around 2012/13. Because of that background, I used to lean on Vegas O/Us a lot as a tiebreaker for fringe matchups plays, choosing the guy in a game with a higher implied points total. But the Vegas O/U, while a useful guide, isn't perfect. It tells us the number that Vegas thinks will balance its book, rather than the number of points that they think will actually be scored in a game. This year, when I've seen dissonance between fantasy analysts and Vegas, I haven't taken what Vegas has said as gospel and instead I've used the fantasy knowledge as an opportunity to bet the O/U. A perfect example was the Packers-Vikings MNF game that just passed which had an O/U of around 47 and at the same time most fantasy sites had both Rodgers &Cousins as QB2s with the only W/T1s on both rosters being the mainstays of Adams, Diggs, and Jones.

FAILED: Trusting camp hype over "real" draft capital
I think the local SB nation blogs for each team are great for team insights during OTAs and training camp and getting more of a feel for how camp battles are shaking out. But buying that camp hype bit me a couple times this year. One example this year was the Ravens. I know it's still early in his career, but after hearing everything out of the Ravens camp this offseason about Miles Boykin while hearing almost nothing about Hollywood, I went hard for Boykin in all my rookie/startup drafts and faded Hollywood - obviously it didn't pan out! Next season, if there's a skill position player that is drafted by an NFL team in the 1st round, I'll trust that they'll get opportunity once the season starts.
submitted by fencing123 to DynastyFF [link] [comments]

Dawning 2019 - Recipes, SGAs and FAQs (Republished from 2018, please advise of any changes for update)

Just to make it clear, this is in fact the 2018 version making appropriate updates as we / I go. Recipes etc are still the same so it still has a lot of information in of relevance. Please pardon my dust while I comb and discover

Many aspects of the Dawning auto complete if you participated in the Dawning 2018
Good Dawning Guardians,
Happy Tower Holidays to you all! 'The Dawning' is here and with it, an event around using our skills at slaying the forces of Darkness and turning them into delicious treats along with picking up unique and interesting rewards is here
Eva Levante has returned to the Tower and with her, a Hot Oven for us to travel the system in order to become Star Baker. She has Powerful Rewards for levelling up and a couple of Quests to keep us busy
The Dawning is available to ALL Destiny 2 players, all Guardians are invited to join the Festivities. The Dawning lasts between 17th of December to the New Years Day, Weekly Reset January 2020. So we have 3 weeks to sample all of its festive delights
Below I have listed Quests, Recipes, SGAs, FAQs and as much detail as possible relating to the Dawning Event
As many things remain the same or similar, I’ll update this as discover new things
If you see anything I have missed or worth adding, please let me know
Forward Unto Dawn
"Come in, come in! Even you Guardians can catch a chill. Things have certainly changed since I last called this place home. But the Dawning is always here for us: just as we should always be here for each other." —Eva Levante
The Dawning is an event hosted by Eva Levante in the Tower. A returning NPC who went into hiding following the Cabal Invasion of the Tower. She returns with festive cheer and hopes to help us all celebrate our victories and bring togetherness back to the Tower. She is located opposite the Drifter, adjacent to Ikora in a very homely looking area
Upon arrival you will notice Glowing Orbs on the floor of which you can pick up and also Snow mounds to initaite some of the greatest Snow ball fights the Tower has ever seen! Hitting another Guardian with a Snowball produces a Debuff which 'slows' them for around 12 seconds
The Dawning begins with a Quest and sets us up for the rest of the event. Steps here
  • Visit Eva at the Tower
  • She gives you a 'Holiday Oven' and some Ingredients. (Oven found in your Inventory, under Pursuits
  • Use the Ingredients to create 'Gjallardoodles' and go present them to Zavala
  • In sheer joy due to flavour sensation, Zavala will award you with the a further Quest to obtain the Exotic Sparrow , Dawning Cheer
Once you cook ALL available recipes, the Oven can be Masterworked, reducing Cost of further Bakes. Note - If you do not own Forsaken you will be locked out of some aspects as you cannot visit Spider and Petra
Once you Masterwork 1 Oven, if you have multiple characters you can Masterwork those also
Worth noting that the Weekly rewards apply to all 3 Characters, so the Weekly Rewards / Eververse Gift / Cold Front (Random Rolls) can be picked up and completed on all characters, not 1 Account wide. This is especially useful for levelling up, gaining extra cores, Eververse gear and you can switch Characters while collecting Baking Goods if you finish one characters challenges so you're always moving forward
Spreading Cheer - Quests
Below are the 2 main quest lines we have so far in the Dawning
Deliciously Cheerful Blueprint
The first notable quest is for the Exotic Sparrow. This requires you to bake 3 Cookies for certain Vendors and also 12 Bakes overall
  • Bake for Louis (Hawthornes Kestrel AKA r'Kez) - Eliksni Birdseed (You give this to Hawthorne)
  • Bake for Amanda Holiday - Chocolate Ship Cookies
  • Bake for Shaxx - Vanilla Blades
  • Bake 12 items overall
Recipes on how to make these are listed below in table format
Alongside this, Tess offers a % Quest for delivering Baked goods to other Vendors. Bake 4 and she will award you with 'A Gift in Return' which is an Eververse Dawning Engram
Once you receive the Sparrow, a further Quest appears in order to Repair it which unlocks additional Perks. Amanda Holliday will serve as your mechanic to start the work. These only appear AFTER completing the above and receiving the Sparrow. If you don't receive any on-screen notification, go to Amanda and see if the Bounties are available
Bounty 1 - Titan & Warlock
  • Bake Donut Holes for Ikora
  • Bake Alkane Dragee for Sloane
  • Bake 48 Cookies total
Completion of this step unlocks 'Happy Dawning' a perk which makes a Glimmer trail behind you will using Boost on the Sparrow
Bounty 2 - Sniper & Scribe
  • Bake Gentlemens Shortbread for Devrim
  • Bake Randolarian Pudding for Asher
  • Bake 72 Cookies total
Completion of this step unlocks 'Dawning Dare' a perk which makes a Presents appear after landing a trick
Bounty 3 (Final) - Gunsmith and Navigator
  • Bake Telemetry Tapioca for Banshee-44
  • Bake Infinite Forest Cake for Failsafe
  • Bake 120 Cookies total
Completion of this step unlocks 'Transmat Preloader' a perk which makes your Sparrow Instant Summon.
Season of Giving
This one is much more straight forward
Deliver holiday treats to recipients (NPC Vendors) all over the system
Do this 12 times to receive a Powerful Reward
Wake and Bake
Here is a full list of Bakes and where to find them. You'll be Star Baker yet
Tess is also selling boxes of Ingredients for Bright Dust. These are scale in numbers of Ingredients provided with 3 tiers of Pricing. The ingredients you get are RNG
You can also buy ingredients directly from Eva Levante during the Event which will help a lot if you just need a piece to finish a set
Name Vendor Type Ingredient 1 Ingredient 2
Gjallardoodles Zavala Rare Ether Cane Delicious Explosion
Gjallardoodles Zavala Legendary Ether Cane Delicious Explosion
Traveler Donut Holes Ikora Rey Rare Cabal Oil Flash of Inspiration
Traveler Donut Holes Ikora Rey Legendary Cabal Oil Flash of Inspiration
Chocolate Ship Cookies Amanda Holliday Rare Cabal Oil Null Taste
Chocolate Ship Cookies Amanda Holliday Legendary Cabal Oil Null Taste
Telemetry Tapioca Banshee-44 Rare Vex Milk Bullet Spray
Telemetry Tapioca Banshee-44 Legendary Vex Milk Bullet Spray
Eliksni Birdseed Louis Rare Ether Cane Personal Touch
Eliksni Birdseed Louis Legendary Ether Cane Personal Touch
Gentleman's Shortbread Devrim Kay Rare Ether Cane Perfect Taste
Gentleman's Shortbread Devrim Kay Legendary Ether Cane Perfect Taste
Alkane Dragée Cookies Sloane Rare Chitin Powder Bullet Spray
Alkane Dragée Cookies Sloane Legendary Chitin Powder Bullet Spray
Infinite Forest Cake Failsafe Rare Vex Milk Impossible Heat
Infinite Forest Cake Failsafe Legendary Vex Milk Impossible Heat
Radiolarian Pudding Asher Mir Rare Vex Milk Electric Flavor
Radiolarian Pudding Asher Mir Legendary Vex Milk Electric Flavor
Vanilla Blades Lord Shaxx Rare Cabal Oil Sharp Flavour
Vanilla Blades Lord Shaxx Legendary Cabal Oil Sharp Flavour
Javelin Mooncake Ana Bray Rare Chitin Powder Sharp Flavor
Javelin Mooncake Ana Bray Legendary Chitin Powder Sharp Flavor
Dark Chocolate Motes The Drifter Rare Taken Butter Null Taste
Dark Chocolate Motes The Drifter Legendary Taken Butter Null Taste
Candy Dead Ghosts Spider Rare Dark Ether Cane Flash of Inspiration
Candy Dead Ghosts Spider Legendary Dark Ether Cane Flash of Inspiration
Ill-Fortune Cookies Petra Venj Rare Dark Ether Cane Impossible Heat
Ill-Fortune Cookies Petra Venj Legendary Dark Ether Cane Impossible Heat
Strange Cookies Xûr Rare Taken Butter Electric Flavor
Strange Cookies Xûr Legendary Taken Butter Electric Flavor

New Recipes found here give credit to its creator on this link. I’ll update table later on

If you combine two ingredients that don't mix, you will end up with a "Burnt Edge Transit". IMPORTANT - You MUST make atleast one Burnt Edge Transit BEFORE completing every single recipe. If you get to the Masterwork point of the Oven before you do this, you cannot make a BET.
Where to get them
Ingredient Where to find
Vex Milk Vex enemies
Ether Cane Fallen enemies
Cabal Oil Cabal enemies
Chitin Powder Hive enemies
Taken Butter Taken enemies
Dark Ether Cane Scorn enemies
Delicious Explosion Grenade/Rocket LauncheGrenade Launcher kills
Sharp Flavor Sword kills
Impossible Heat Solar kills
Electric Flavor Arc kills
Null Taste Void kills
Flash of Inspiration Orbs generated
Personal Touch Melee kills
Perfect Taste Precision kills
Bullet Spray SMG/LMG/AR kills
How many you need to Bake - Numbers
Clarification - This table is for how many of this ingredient is require to MAKE the Cookies, not how many kills required to bag them up for a Baking
Ingredient No. required to make each Cookie
Vex Milk 3
Ether Cane 3
Cabal Oil 3
Chitin Powder 2
Taken Butter 2
Dark Ether Cane 2
Delicious Explosion 1
Sharp Flavor 2
Impossible Heat 2
Electric Flavor 2
Null Taste 2
Flash of Inspiration 2
Personal Touch 1
Perfect Taste 1
Bullet Spray 2
Essence of Dawning
This is found by completing activities and is the last step in the Baking Process. You require 15 per Bake (Until the Oven is Masterworked)
Looks like a few of these can be RNG / Performance based (May have changed for 2019, testing now)
Location Amount
Patrols 1-3
Escalation Protocol 3 per round
Public Events 5
Flashpoint Completion 5
Heroic Adventure 6
Heroic Blind Well 10
Mayhem (Crucible) 12-17
Strikes 15-17
Gambit 17-22
Nightfall Strikes 23
Last Wish Riven Chests 5
Forge Completion 10
That's the way the Cookie crumbles
Eva will also help us out with collecting our ingredients / Essense with a raft of Daily Bounties, including a Weekly Bounty which awards 'Powerful Gear'
(May have new updated requirements for 2019, will keep an eye out / scan the new ones day to day)

Daily Bounties

Name Description Objective Reward
Dawning Ingredients: Vex Defeat Vex enemies anywhere in the system. Kill 100 Vex Vex Milk
Dawning Ingredients: Fallen Defeat Fallen enemies anywhere in the system. Kill 100 Fallen Ether Cane
Dawning Ingredients: Cabal Defeat Cabal enemies anywhere in the system. Kill 100 Cabal Cabal Oil
Dawning Ingredients: Hive Defeat Hive enemies anywhere in the system. Kill 100 Hive Chitin Powder
Dawning Ingredients: Taken Defeat Taken enemies anywhere in the system. Kill 100 Taken Taken Butter
Dawning Ingredients: Scorn Defeat Scorn enemies anywhere in the system. Kill 100 Scorn Dark Ether Cane


Name Description Objective Reward
A Really Bright Light in the Darkness Defeat enemies with explosion damage anywhere in the system. Opposing Guardians count more toward this bounty's progress. 100 kills Delicious Explosion
Stay Sharp Use Swords to defeat enemies anywhere in the system. Opposing Guardians count more toward this bounty's progress. 100 kills Sharp Flavor
Solar Powered Defeat enemies with Solar damage anywhere in the system. Opposing Guardians count more toward this bounty's progress. 250 kills Impossible Heat
Electricity in the Air Defeat enemies with Arc damage anywhere in the system. Opposing Guardians count more toward this bounty's progress. 250 kills Electric Flavor
Cold Embrace Defeat enemies with Void damage anywhere in the system. Opposing Guardians count more toward this bounty's progress. 250 kills Null Taste
Bright and Beautiful Pick up Orbs of Light anywhere in the system. 20 orbs Flash of Inspiration
In Your Face Defeat enemies anywhere in the system with melee damage. Opposing Guardians count more toward this bounty's progress. 50 kills Personal Touch
A Head Start Defeat enemies anywhere in the system with precision damage. Opposing Guardians count more toward this bounty's progress. 100 kills Perfect Taste
A Dawning Sprayer Defeat enemies anywhere in the system with Submachine Guns, Machine Guns, or Auto Rifles. 100 kills Bullet Spray


Name Description Objective Reward
Delight, Delight, Delight Complete a Gambit match. 1 match Essence of Dawning
This (Dawning) Is Amazing! Complete matches in the Crucible. 2 matches Essence of Dawning
Strike Magic Complete strikes. 1 strike Essence of Dawning
Event Events Complete public events anywhere in the system. 3 events Essence of Dawning
Spreading Cheer Defeat enemies anywhere in the system. Opposing Guardians count more toward this bounty's progress. 300 enemies Essence of Dawning

Weekly Bounty

Name Description Objective Reward
Not Quite a Baker's Dozen Gifts baked Bake 6 treats Powerful Reward
Slay on a Sleigh
As always in Destiny, looking frabjous > than function. Here are all Dawning 2018 Eververse Items available via Dawning Engrams
New and old are available from Eververse. Some Bright dust on weekly rotation, some silver
Credit - u/KrystallAnn - Eververse Dawning Items
The Dawning also brings with it Multiplayer Emotes! Emotes which 2 Guardian can use to interact with each other such as High 5s and Fist Bumps - Example
These work by standing close to another Guardian who initiates the emote, Holding X/Square and joining it together. You both DO NOT have to have the Emote equipped for this to work. Go Fist Bump some Blueberries
New 'Throw Down' Emote for all the Canadians out there - Here
'Baking Cookies Emote (Only available via Silver) - Here
Tess is also selling boxes of Ingredients for Bright Dust. These are scale in numbers of Ingredients provided with 3 tiers of Pricing. The ingredients you get are RNG
On your marks, get set, BAKE! - FAQs
I will add to this over time if more Qs become prevalent
  • Do we get rewards from delivering Cookies?
Besides the quests, chances of Blues and Legendaries to drop. Including the new Avalanche LMG
  • What happens if I dismantle a Cookie?
It Crumbles. Leaving you with nothing
  • What's the deal with Burnt Edge Transits when I bake?
This means you aren't combining the right ingredients (See list above).
  • Do I really have to bake all of those Cookies to upgrade the Sparrow? Does it carry over from the original?
Yes but each step is progressive. So First step you do X amount and that will carry over to part 2 and 3 until all 120 are met
Can I still get Avalanche Solar LMG?
  • You can. Reports say Ikora has dropped it so it may be in general engram pool for the event
  • Where are the best places to Farm?
This all depends on what you are after. For example. EP is a great way to get Hive Kills much like doing the Blind Well this week. Here are some examples of what can be used for efficiency. Worth noting, Strikes also award Essesence of Dawning for Baking so Strikes related to the enemy you need is very useful
  • Fallen - EDZ. Public Events in Trostland and Lost Sectors around the Church
  • Scorn - Mindbenders Ambition Strike
  • Taken - Corrupted Strike / Lake of Shadows Strike
  • Cabal - Leviathan Raid (Castellum)
  • Vex - Inverted Spire. Can do this as a Nightfall this week also - More Essence on completion and can set own Modifiers to make it easier
  • Hive - Savathuns Song Strike. Escalation Protocol
  • What's the best way to get Dawning Essence?
For me, Mayhem in the Crucible. Average around 15 per game (Which is 1 bake) and games take about 5 / 10 mins max. I will add further sources but for now, I think this one's a winner
  • I'm not really a 'Mayhem' type of Guardian, any good PVE farms?
Speed running Nightfalls. Set Mods to your advantage and just speed through. This week I'd recommend 'Strange Terrain' with Arc and Heavyweight. With a Lunafaction Warlock and/or Melting point, you can one phase Nokris before the crystals even become active - See here for a quick video of it in action
Here's also a Nightfall Guide I wrote previously with Nightfall recommended set ups for Speed / Score Runs
The Last Word
Let’s get Festive! There's certainly some grind linked to all this but just from general play last night I managed to finish the Sparrow and start cracking on with the Repairs
It's an easy going take on playing the game with sources from all aspects of D2 we enjoy providing means of completing the Quests and baking our way to the top accessible and with a bit of added fun to an otherwise more serious tone of Forsaken / Black Armory
Mary Berry would love it
Happy Baking and Happy Dawning, Guardians!
A lot of this information was datamined previous as well as some high quality work so I have sourced some of it as well as added my own findings. Sources here for all due respect and credit to their creators.
I would send them all of the Gjallardoodles if I could
submitted by RiseOfBacon to DestinyTheGame [link] [comments]

Ultimate Guide for Online Sports Betting OFA168

Sports betting is beginning to go mainstream also. The thing that was mentioned using a wink and a nod would be currently discussed publicly. There are shows on major sporting programs that pay to wager daily. It’s really a boom time for sports bettors, and also the playing field is still open for those who are not used to the match.
Retail sportsbooks and gambling apps are still established in legalized countries. Because of this, gaming lovers have lots of legal on the web and portable sportsbook options. Online sports betting sounds somewhat complicated at first, but it is going to feel a whole lot less foreign when you get some experience.
This guide intends to help decrease your learning curve tremendously. Let us start out with the basic principles.
Bettors try to predict the outcomes and create their very best bet on which the result is. Bettors an average of a bet with a sportsbook. Odds-makers at the assorted novels will put lines or chances for its readily available wagers.
Essentially, chances clearly show the chances of a certain event occurring. Additionally, they indicate the potential yield for all those that gamble successfully. Sportsbook provides a vast selection of markets. From leading sports like NFL gambling along with NBA gambling to niche offerings like cricket along with rugby, you will discover lots of wagering opportunities out there. The very same applies in regards to betting types.
The most ordinary bet simply entails selecting a winning side. But, you will find lots of different means to bet and facets to think about. Sports betting is a popular pastime that’s bringing more attention thanks to legalization in several markets.
You are brand new to sports gambling and prepared to begin. Now what?
Beginning any new undertaking might be overwhelming initially, but a lot of times you’ll find it isn’t really that tough once you start grinding. That is true with sports gambling. Much like many other scenarios, it is ideal, to begin with, the fundamentals and builds from there:
Advantages of sports-betting: Sports gambling has ever turned into a blessing for every one of those countries that have ever entered. A clinic that has been illegal has become generating additional tax revenue. What’s more, occupations are and continue to be established in each new industry.
Steps to Start Betting on Sports: it may not be much easier to begin gambling on sports betting. Most operators are working out the legal niches, and enrolling in an account using them is just a snap. From that point, you are able to remove and add funds from the accounts easily and start researching chances.
The Mechanics of sports-betting: Among the coolest things concerning sports gambling is that you’re able to get as complex as you prefer at your own pace. It is possible to keep it simple and follow the fundamentals or dip in with both feet to boost your level of skill from the beginning. That is ultimately your decision personally; also there isn’t any wrong or right strategy. It boils down to a question of what is most effective for you personally.
Knowing the chances: that really is a place that could confuse those brand new to the match. A brief, chances inform one of that the suggested probabilities and possible yield for powerful wagers. For a simplified case, negative chances imply a well-liked and less yield potential. While favorable chances point out an underdog and also the capacity for larger yields.
For every one of those categories, there exists a ton more to comprehend proceeding forward. As you progress, you’re able to research issues, like chances, in a great deal more detail. Provided that those foreign notions will develop into something that you know well.
Sports betting can be exceedingly enjoyable, and additionally, there is the opportunity to earn a profit whilst doing whatever you like. That is clearly a win-win scenario, however, additionally, it is critical to get into it using a transparent mind.
Almost always there is the prospect of hitting a significant parlay you are likely to have rich using overnight. A sports betting is hard and maybe quite a grind, but that is also part of this allure. Begin sports gambling using realistic expectations sufficient reason for a laser-like give attention to being more disciplined. For all those not used to the match, you need to think about the money you’re wagering as a portion of one’s entertainment budget.
Just bet what you’re comfortable gambling and do not exceed this amount. There’ll be a lot of time and energy to enlarge your bets as your skills improve; therefore there is no requirement to dash it as long as you are learning. Last but most certainly not least, bear in mind this is something which you ought to discover entertaining and fun. In case it stops sense like this — or in case you struck on the inevitable losing series — you shouldn’t be reluctant to simply take a rest. Having a step backward and forth representing somewhat will permit you to tweak your approach and plan where required. Obtaining a breather and obtaining additional view might cause one to feel rejuvenated if you are prepared to play.
Sportsbook operators are for-profit entities. Therefore, they are not only providing a gambling market place out from the goodness in the hearts. The target for these may be exactly the very same as you: to earn money. Novels that do not accomplish that goal won’t be around as long. Odds-makers who always have a beating will gradually be trying to find a fresh field of work. Nevertheless, the overwhelming bulk of operators that are established are excellent at what they’re doing.
They turn into a profit as an outcome. Therefore, just how do they accomplish so? Sports-books earn money by the commissions that they collect for shooting action on stakes. That can be known as the vig or even juice. Let us consider a good illustration working with a normal group of point spread odds of -110.
In case your bet is more correct, you are going to reunite 0.90, and that’s the own 0% bet and a benefit of .90. So just why not double your funds? That is since the bookmaker has essentially maintained a proportion of their yield for themselves. Additionally, think that the operator can also be taking bets on each side of the equation.
In an ideal environment, they’ll receive even actions on each side. 1 / 2 of those stakes will likely triumph, as the spouse will probably soon lose. The internet of the things they collect, no matter what they cover out, reflects profit. Obviously, maybe not all of the stakes will bring even actions, which explains the reason you are going to observe chances move once they have been published. In case the book maker’s accountability using a single side of a result gets too great, they’ll create the likelihood a little more positive on the opposite hand to draw in more activity.
Mistakes Need to Avoid
Whenever you’re beginning with something brand new, it’s vital to see that there is going to soon be a learning curve. Mistakes will occur on the way, however, you are able to study on everyone and boost your general knowledge base.
If it comes to sports gambling, you are likely to make mistakes. You’ll miss something which appears obvious on your handicapping ahead of this match. Or you can set a bet on chances that unexpectedly turn into far more positive on the negative you’re leaning. It’s going to occur, and there is absolutely no solution to protect against every mistake. But, you’ll be able to prevent many big pitfalls which might create your sports gaming profession shortlived.
Do Not Chase Your Losses: You are likely to drop a few stakes. Any sports bettor who lets you know to win all of the time is not really being honest. When reductions happen, analyze the reason why suck it up and then proceed. Don’t make an effort to “get “ by Slimming down since you are “because of a win” Which is an instant recipe for tragedy.
Do not Bet On your mind: It is critical to own a crystal clear funding in mind for their own sports gambling console. Simply deposit that which you could manage to reduce, and also withstand the desire to go ahead when things are not moving away. If your long term budget has been gone, then simply take that as a chance to have a rest and return back into it having a transparent head.
Do not Be Unrealistic or over-estimate Your Skills: From nature, most sports fans are enthusiastic. Some people may take this for the extreme and feel as though they’re always right and therefore are not able to create a lot of money gambling. You shouldn’t be this guy or woman. Understand that you are going to have work to accomplish aside from your sports consciousness grade, and keep your profit aims reasonable.
Sports gambling can be considered a wonderful source of entertainment and also a potentially rewarding enterprise. Nevertheless, the probability of happening increases whenever you stop the aforementioned advantages.
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NFL Draft Betting Guide  The Line  Sports Illustrated NFL Betting Guide - Browns vs 49ers NFL Betting Strategy Guide NFL Betting Guide - Patriots vs Ravens NFL Betting Guide - Cowboys vs Eagles

NFL Betting Strategy. These tips apply to wagering in general but especially NFL betting and we are sharing them with you to help you get the best possible experience on your wagering journey. Proportional Betting– This piece of advise is one that inexperienced gamblers have the hardest time following. When wagering, you should try to bet In the NFL, this is a common form of betting to get more bang for your buck. NFL Teaser Bet A teaser bet is a form of parlay that involves a combination of two to ten NFL wagers in which you adjust the point spreads and/or totals in your favor in exchange for a lower payout. How NFL betting became popular? The rise of NFL betting has been quite well documented of late, and with the hugely exciting Super Bowl having just been played last week, this gives us a good opportunity to cover this interesting topic. Relatively new to the world of trading? Check out VOdds’ guide to sports betting. Here at, we’ve compiled a handy guide for those new to NFL betting. Additionally, we delve into the best NFL betting sites, what makes a good betting site, some NFL betting strategies, and some top expert tips. Best NFL Betting Sites. The best online betting sites for betting on the NFL can be found below. These sites This website caters to individuals who adore betting on favorites such as tennis, soccer, golf, hockey, baseball, football, and basketball. The sky is honestly the limit for fans who head over to these days. BetOnline can be a true haven for individuals who are searching for all of the best sports betting sites.

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NFL Draft Betting Guide The Line Sports Illustrated

Sports Betting 101: Top Beginners Mistakes in Betting the NFL (NFL Betting Tips) - Duration: 4:51. WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips 20,515 views 4:51 NFL 2019 - Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles sports betting guide from professional sports handicapper Alpha Omega. This video previews the NFL Week 16 NFL matchup between the Cowboys and the ... NFL 2019 - New York Giants vs Detroit Lions sports betting guide from professional sports handicapper Alpha Omega. This video previews the NFL Week 8 matchup between the Giants and the Lions ... NFL 2019 - New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens sports betting guide from professional sports handicapper Alpha Omega. This video previews the NFL Week 9 Sunday Night Football matchup between ... NFL Preseason Betting Tips: Best and Worst Coaches for Sports Bettors - Duration: 10:22. WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips 2,272 views. 10:22.